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Returns and Interest Rate: A Nonlinear Relationship in the Bogotá Stock Market

Author

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Andrés González
  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

This work presents some evidence of the nonlinear and inverse relationschip between the share prices on the Bogotá stock market and the interest rate as measured by the interbank loan interest rate, which is to some extent affected by monetary policy. The model captures the stylised fact on this market of higt dependence of returns in short market in Colombia. Evidence of a non constant equity premium is also found. The work uses daily data from january 1994 up to February 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés González & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2001. "Returns and Interest Rate: A Nonlinear Relationship in the Bogotá Stock Market," Borradores de Economia 169, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:169
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    4. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 2002. "The Message in Daily Exchange Rates: A Conditional-Variance Tale," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 60-68, January.
    5. Shiller, Robert J, 1981. "Do Stock Prices Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Dividends?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 421-436, June.
    6. Brock, W.A. & Dechert, W.D. & LeBaron, B. & Scheinkman, J.A., 1995. "A Test for Independence Based on the Correlation Dimension," Working papers 9520, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    7. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pallegedara, Asankha, 2012. "Dynamic relationships between stock market performance and short term interest rate Empirical evidence from Sri Lanka," MPRA Paper 40773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. María Clara Aristizábal Restrepo, 2006. "Evaluación asimétrica de una red neuronal artificial:Aplicación al caso de la inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 377, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. BENDOB, Ali & Benahmed-Daho, Rachida, 2017. "Pourrions-nous utiliser l'Euribor comme taux de rendement sans risque dans la région Arabe ?
      [Could we use the Euribor as risk-free rate return in Arabic region?]
      ," MPRA Paper 81405, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2017.
    4. David Mauricio Rivera Palacio, 2009. "Modelacion del efecto del día de la semana para los índices accionarios de Colombia mediante un modelo STAR GARCH," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nonlinearities; stock returns; interest rate; smooth transition regression; GARCH models.;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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