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Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates

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  • Stefano Giglio
  • Bryan Kelly

Abstract

We document a form of excess volatility that is irreconcilable with standard models of prices, even after accounting for variation in discount rates. We compare prices of claims on the same cash flow stream but with different maturities. Standard models impose precise internal consistency conditions on the joint behavior of long and short maturity claims and these are strongly rejected in the data. In particular, long maturity prices are significantly more variable than justified by the behavior at short maturities. Our findings are pervasive. We reject internal consistency conditions in all term structures that we study, including equity options, currency options, credit default swaps, commodity futures, variance swaps, and inflation swaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Giglio & Bryan Kelly, 2016. "Excess Volatility: Beyond Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 22045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22045
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    2. Backus, David & Boyarchenko, Nina & Chernov, Mikhail, 2018. "Term structures of asset prices and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Peter Haan & Chen Sun & Uwe Sunde & Georg Weizsäcker, 2022. "Non-Additivity of Subjective Expectations over Different Time Intervals," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 2027, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. Leland E. Farmer & Lawrence Schmidt & Allan Timmermann, 2023. "Pockets of Predictability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(3), pages 1279-1341, June.
    5. Carboni, Giacomo & Ellison, Martin, 2022. "Preferred habitat and monetary policy through the looking-glass," Working Paper Series 2697, European Central Bank.
    6. Irina Zviadadze, 2017. "Term Structure of Risk on Macrofinance Models," 2017 Meeting Papers 965, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2023. "Decomposing Long Bond Returns: A Decentralized Theory," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(3), pages 997-1026.
    8. Liu, Yan & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2021. "Reconstructing the yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1395-1425.
    9. Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2022. "Overreaction and Diagnostic Expectations in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 223-244, Summer.
    10. Bordalo, Pedro & Gennaioli, Nicola & Kwon, Spencer Yongwook & Shleifer, Andrei, 2021. "Diagnostic bubbles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1060-1077.
    11. Constantin Charles & Cary D. Frydman & Mete Kilic, 2022. "Insensitive Investors," CESifo Working Paper Series 10067, CESifo.
    12. Charles, Constantin & Frydman, Cary & Kilic, Mete, 2024. "Insensitive investors," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120788, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Lux, Thomas, 2020. "Can heterogeneous agent models explain the alleged mispricing of the S&P 500?," Economics Working Papers 2020-03, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    14. Richard K. Crump & Nikolay Gospodinov, 2019. "Deconstructing the yield curve," Staff Reports 884, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    15. Hervé Roche & Juan Sotes-Paladino, 2022. "Sentiment, Mispricing and Excess Volatility in Presence of Institutional Investors," Working Papers 205, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    16. Han, Jinhui & Li, Xiaolong & Ma, Guiyuan & Kennedy, Adrian Patrick, 2023. "Strategic trading with information acquisition and long-memory stochastic liquidity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 480-495.
    17. Pedro Manuel Nogueira Reis & Carlos Pinho, 2021. "A Reappraisal of the Causal Relationship between Sentiment Proxies and Stock Returns," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 420-442, October.
    18. Alfaro, Rodrigo & Piña, Marco, 2023. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(1).
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    20. Danial Saef & Yuanrong Wang & Tomaso Aste, 2022. "Regime-based Implied Stochastic Volatility Model for Crypto Option Pricing," Papers 2208.12614, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    21. Rodrigo Alfaro & Marco Piña, 2021. "Estimates of the US Shadow-Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 923, Central Bank of Chile.

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    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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