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Institutions’ return expectations across assets and time

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  • Dahlquist, Magnus
  • Ibert, Markus

Abstract

We study the equity, cash, and corporate bond risk premium expectations of asset managers, investment consultants, wealth advisors, public pension funds, and professional forecasters. Subjective risk premia vary one-to-one with objective risk premia that are available in real time and countercyclical. Despite their significant time-series variation, several subjective equity premia vary more in the cross-section of institutions than in the time series. This heterogeneity persists both over time and across asset classes. We tie the heterogeneity in subjective equity return expectations to heterogeneous expectations about long-term equity valuations: some institutions believe that the price–earnings ratio behaves like a random walk, whereas others believe in varying degrees of mean reversion.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahlquist, Magnus & Ibert, Markus, 2026. "Institutions’ return expectations across assets and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:175:y:2026:i:c:s0304405x25001965
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104188
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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies

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