IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies


  • Ivo Welch

    () (International Center for Finance)


The consensus of 226 academic financial economists forecasts an arithmetic equity premium of 7% per year over 10 and 30 year horizons; and 6% to 7% over 1 and 5 year horizons. Pessimistic and optimistic 30-year scenario forecasts average 2% and 13%. Respondents claim to revise their forecast downward when the stock market rises. They perceive the profession's consensus to be higher than it really is and are influenced by this perception. There is agreement that markets are efficient and lack arbitrage opportunities, and that government intervention in financial markets is detrimental.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivo Welch, 2000. "Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm122, Yale School of Management.
  • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm122

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.