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Fundamental disagreement

Author

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  • Andrade, Philippe

    (Banque de France)

  • Crump, Richard K.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Eusepi, Stefano

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Moench, Emanuel

Abstract

We use the term structure of disagreement of professional forecasters to document a novel set of facts: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement differs markedly across variables: it is downward sloping for real output growth, relatively flat for inflation, and upward sloping for the federal funds rate; (3) disagreement is time-varying at all horizons, including the long run. These new facts present a challenge to benchmark models of expectation formation based on informational frictions. We show that these models require two additional ingredients to match the entire term structure of disagreement: First, agents must disentangle low-frequency shifts in the fundamentals of the economy from short-term fluctuations. Second, agents must take into account the dynamic interactions between variables when forming forecasts. While models enriched with these features capture the observed term structure of disagreement irrespective of the source of the informational friction, they fall short at explaining the time variance of disagreement at medium- and long-term horizons. We also use the term structure of disagreement to analyze the monetary policy rule perceived by professional forecasters and show that it features a high degree of interest-rate smoothing and time variation in the intercept.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrade, Philippe & Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2013. "Fundamental disagreement," Staff Reports 655, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Nov 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:655 Note: Previous title: “Noisy Information and Fundamental Disagreement”
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Yara de Almeida Campos Cordeiro & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & João Victor Issler, 2015. "Inattention in Individual Expectations," Working Papers Series 395, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    2. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2015. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Papers 1711, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Feb 2017.
    3. Lena Draeger & Michael J. Lamla, 2015. "Disagreement à la Taylor: Evidence from Survey Microdata," KOF Working papers 15-380, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    4. Giacomini, Raffaella & Skreta, Vasiliki & Turen, Javier, 2016. "Models, inattention and expectation updates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86245, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    5. Ambrocio, Gene, 2017. "The real effects of overconfidence and fundamental uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 37, Bank of Finland.
    6. Buss, Adrian & Dumas, Bernard & Uppal, Raman & Vilkov, Grigory, 2016. "The intended and unintended consequences of financial-market regulations: A general-equilibrium analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 25-43.
    7. Bulut, Mustafa & Karasoy, Hatice Gökçe, 2016. "Para Politikası Belirsizliği Altında Aktarım Mekanizması: Türkiye Örneği
      [Transmission Mechanism Under Monetary Policy Uncertainty: The Case of Turkey]
      ," MPRA Paper 71215, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2016. "Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 107-118.
    9. repec:oup:restud:v:84:y:2017:i:2:p:853-884. is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Falck, Elisabeth & Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2017. "Disagreement and monetary policy," Discussion Papers 29/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Marcello Pericoli & Giovanni Veronese, 2015. "Forecaster heterogeneity, surprises and financial markets," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1020, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Dovern, Jonas, 2015. "A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 16-35.
    13. Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 84(2), pages 853-884.
    14. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1137-x is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Jonas Dovern & Matthias Hartmann, 2017. "Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios," Empirical Economics, Springer, pages 63-77.
    16. Šauer, Radek, 2016. "The imperfect-common-knowledge Phillips curve: Calvo versus Rotemberg," Discussion Papers 50/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Raffaella Giacomini & Vasiliki Skreta & Javier Turen, 2015. "Models, Inattention and Expectation Updates," Discussion Papers 1602, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    18. P. Andrade & G. Gaballo & E. Mengus & B. Mojon, 2015. "Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs," Working papers 573, Banque de France.
    19. Hoffmann, Mathias & Hürtgen, Patrick, 2016. "Inflation expectations, disagreement, and monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 59-63.
    20. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-08, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    21. Acharya, Sushant, 2014. "Costly information, planning complementarities and the Phillips Curve," Staff Reports 698, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    22. Daniel Andrei & Bruce Carlin & Michael Hasler, 2014. "Model Disagreement and Economic Outlook," NBER Working Papers 20190, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. G. C. Montes & L. V. Oliveira & A. Curi & R. T. F. Nicolay, 2016. "Effects of transparency, monetary policy signalling and clarity of central bank communication on disagreement about inflation expectations," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(7), pages 590-607, February.
    24. Gunda-Alexandra Detmers, 2016. "Forward Guidance under Disagreement - Evidence from the Fed's Dot Projections," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-041, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    expectations; survey forecasts; imperfect information; term structure of disagreement;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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