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Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy

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  • Andrade, P.
  • Ghysels, E.
  • Idier, J.

Abstract

We introduce a new measure called Inflation-at-Risk (I@R) associated with (left and right) tail inflation risk. We estimate I@R using survey-based density forecasts. We show that it contains information not covered by usual inflation risk indicators which focus on inflation uncertainty and do not distinguish between the risks of low or high future inflation outcomes. Not only the extent but also the asymmetry of inflation risks evolve over time. Moreover, changes in this asymmetry have an impact on future inflation realizations as well as on the current interest rate central banks target.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrade, P. & Ghysels, E. & Idier, J., 2012. "Tails of Inflation Forecasts and Tales of Monetary Policy," Working papers 407, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:407
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    2. Eric Ghysels & Leonardo Iania & Jonas Striaukas, 2018. "Quantile-based Inflation Risk Models," Working Paper Research 349, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Jane M. Ryngaert, 2023. "Balance of Risks and the Anchoring of Consumer Expectations," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Philippe Andrade & Gaetano Gaballo & Eric Mengus & Benoît Mojon, 2019. "Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, July.
    5. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2013. "Conditional predictive density evaluation in the presence of instabilities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 199-212.
    6. Kortelainen, Mika & Paloviita, Maritta & Viren, Matti, 2016. "How useful are measured expectations in estimation and simulation of a conventional small New Keynesian macro model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 540-550.
    7. Joshua Abel & Robert Rich & Joseph Song & Joseph Tracy, 2016. "The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 533-550, April.
    8. Geoff Kenny & Thomas Kostka & Federico Masera, 2015. "Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1203-1231, May.
    9. De Rezende, Rafael B., 2015. "Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability," Working Paper Series 295, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    10. Andrade, Philippe & Fourel, Valère & Ghysels, Eric & Idier, Julien, 2014. "The financial content of inflation risks in the euro area," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 648-659.
    11. Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Moccero, Diego Nicolas, 2015. "Risk management, nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 281-294.
    12. Nicholas Apergis, 2022. "Evaluating tail risks for the U.S. economic policy uncertainty," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 3971-3989, October.
    13. Nicholas Apergis, 2023. "Forecasting energy prices: Quantile‐based risk models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(1), pages 17-33, January.
    14. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2014. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro area option-implied inflation expectations and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Discussion Papers 24/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
    16. Ingrid Groessl & Artur Tarassow, 2015. "A Microfounded Model of Money Demand Under Uncertainty, and some Empirical Evidence," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201504, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics, revised Jan 2018.
    17. Galati, Gabriele & Gorgi, Zion & Moessner, Richhild & Zhou, Chen, 2018. "Deflation risk in the euro area and central bank credibility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 124-126.
    18. Charles Evans & Jonas Fisher & Francois Gourio & Spencer Krane, 2015. "Risk Management for Monetary Policy Near the Zero Lower Bound," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 141-219.
    19. Kenny, Geoff & Dovern, Jonas, 2017. "The long-term distribution of expected inflation in the euro area: what has changed since the great recession?," Working Paper Series 1999, European Central Bank.
    20. Scharnagl, Michael & Stapf, Jelena, 2015. "Inflation, deflation, and uncertainty: What drives euro-area option-implied inflation expectations, and are they still anchored in the sovereign debt crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 248-269.
    21. Ryngaert, Jane M., 2022. "Inflation disasters and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 67-81.
    22. Moccero, Diego & Gnabo, Jean-Yves, 2015. "The risk management approach to monetary policy, nonlinearity and aggressiveness: the case of the US Fed," Working Paper Series 1792, European Central Bank.
    23. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2018. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty: A Tale of Two Tails," Staff Working Papers 18-50, Bank of Canada.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; risk; uncertainty; survey data; inflation dynamics; monetary policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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