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A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area

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  • ROBERT RICH
  • JOSEPH TRACY

Abstract

This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters. We analyze individual uncertainty measures as well as introduce individual point‐ and density‐based disagreement measures. The analysis indicates forecasters’ uncertainty and disagreement display substantial heterogeneity and persistence, with the latter feature challenging a key prediction of expectations models emphasizing information frictions. We also find that uncertainty is characterized by prominent respondent effects and disagreement by prominent time effects, suggesting these divergent properties underlie the well‐documented weak uncertainty–disagreement linkage. Taken together, our results provide a basis for further development of expectations models.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Rich & Joseph Tracy, 2021. "A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(1), pages 233-253, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:53:y:2021:i:1:p:233-253
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12728
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    Cited by:

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    2. Luca Rossi, 2020. "Indicators of uncertainty: a brief user’s guide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Federica Teppa, 2019. "Inflation expectations anchoring: new insights from micro evidence of a survey at high-frequency and of distributions," BIS Working Papers 809, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2023. "The anchoring of long-term inflation expectations of consumers: insights from a new survey," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(1), pages 96-116.
    5. Monique Reid & Pierre Siklos, 2024. "Firm Level Expectations and Macroeconomic Conditions: Underpinnings and Disagreement," CAMA Working Papers 2024-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Hong, T., 2021. "Revisiting the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2174, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Clements, Michael P. & Rich, Robert W. & Tracy, Joseph, 2025. "An Investigation into the Uncertainty Revision Process of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    8. Allayioti, Anastasia & Arioli, Rodolfo & Bates, Colm & Botelho, Vasco & Fagandini, Bruno & Fonseca, Luís & Healy, Peter & Meyler, Aidan & Minasian, Ryan & Zahrt, Octavia, 2024. "A look back at 25 years of the ECB SPF," Occasional Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    9. Petar Soric & Oscar Claveria, 2021. ""Employment uncertainty a year after the irruption of the covid-19 pandemic"," IREA Working Papers 202112, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2021.
    10. Zhao, Yongchen, 2024. "Uncertainty of household inflation expectations: Reconciling point and density forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    11. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    12. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.
    13. Yongchen Zhao, 2022. "Uncertainty and disagreement of inflation expectations: Evidence from household‐level qualitative survey responses," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 810-828, July.
    14. Glas, Alexander & Heinisch, Katja, 2023. "Conditional macroeconomic survey forecasts: Revisions and errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Beckmann, Joscha & Davidson, Sharada Nia & Koop, Gary & Schüssler, Rainer, 2023. "Cross-country uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from international survey data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Meade, Nigel & Driver, Ciaran, 2023. "Differing behaviours of forecasters of UK GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 772-790.
    17. Ambrocio, Gene & Hasan, Iftekhar, 2022. "Belief polarization and Covid-19," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 10/2022, Bank of Finland.
    18. Vania Esady, 2019. "Real and Nominal Effects of Monetary Shocks under Time-Varying Disagreement," CESifo Working Paper Series 7956, CESifo.
    19. Claveria, Oscar, 2022. "Global economic uncertainty and suicide: Worldwide evidence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    20. Coleman, Winnie & Nautz, Dieter, 2023. "Inflation target credibility in times of high inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    21. Glas, Alexander, 2020. "Five dimensions of the uncertainty–disagreement linkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 607-627.
    22. Brent Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Jose Maria Barrero & Steven J. Davis & David Altig & Nicholas Bloom, 2022. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, July.
    23. Nikos Apokoritis & Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner, 2025. "Inflation Expectations Anchoring: New Insights from Microevidence of a Survey at High Frequency and of Distributions," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(1), pages 201-234, January.
    24. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Disagreement on expectations: firms versus consumers," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(12), pages 1-23, December.
    25. Gabriele Galati & Richhild Moessner & Maarten van Rooij, 2021. "Anchoring of consumers’ long-term euro area inflation expectations during the pandemic," Working Papers 715, DNB.

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    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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