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Pandemic-Era Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Brent Meyer

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Research Department, Atlanta, GA 30309, USA)

  • Emil Mihaylov

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Research Department, Atlanta, GA 30309, USA)

  • Jose Maria Barrero

    (Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México Business School, Mexico City 01080, Mexico)

  • Steven J. Davis

    (Booth School of Business, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA
    Hoover Institution, Stanford, CA 94305, USA)

  • David Altig

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Research Department, Atlanta, GA 30309, USA)

  • Nicholas Bloom

    (Department of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA)

Abstract

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year forecast horizon doubled at the onset of the pandemic and then fell about half-way back to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021. Second, and in contrast, the 1-month VIX, a Twitter-based Economic Uncertainty Index, and macro forecaster disagreement all rose sharply in reaction to the pandemic but retrenched almost completely by mid-2021. Third, Categorical Policy Uncertainty Indexes highlight the changing sources of uncertainty—from healthcare and fiscal policy uncertainty in spring 2020 to elevated uncertainty around monetary policy and national security as of May 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but shifted rapidly to the upside from fall 2020 onwards. Perceived upside uncertainty remains highly elevated as of early 2022. Fifth, our survey evidence suggests that elevated uncertainty is exerting only mild restraint on capital investment plans for 2022 and 2023, perhaps because perceived risks are so skewed to the upside.

Suggested Citation

  • Brent Meyer & Emil Mihaylov & Jose Maria Barrero & Steven J. Davis & David Altig & Nicholas Bloom, 2022. "Pandemic-Era Uncertainty," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:15:y:2022:i:8:p:338-:d:876317
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2022. "Uncertainty of Firms' Medium-term Outlook during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Discussion papers 22079, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    2. MORIKAWA Masayuki, 2022. "Firms' Knightian Uncertainty during the COVID-19 Crisis," Discussion papers 22089, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Zbieranek, Piotr, 2022. "Instytucje ramowe. Publiczne instytucje kultury jako katalizator metagovernance w polityce kulturalnej," Studia z Polityki Publicznej / Public Policy Studies, Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 9(4), pages 1-23, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    business expectations; uncertainty; subjective forecast distributions; capital investments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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