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Asymmetric impacts of economic policy uncertainty, capital cost, and raw material cost on China’s investment

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  • Long, Shaobo
  • Pei, Hongxia
  • Tian, Hao
  • Li, Fangfang

Abstract

As one of the main engines driving economic growth, investment has made an important contribution to China’s economy. However, in recent years, the growth rate of China’s fixed asset investment has shown a downward trend. Therefore, it is vital to determine the main influencing factors of China’s investment for formulating stable investment policies. Using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, this study finds that economic policy uncertainty, capital cost, and raw material cost have asymmetrical impacts on China’s fixed asset investment. Further research finds that the above variables have asymmetrical impacts on the two major components of aggregate investment, private investment and public investment, but the impact mechanism for each is completely different. When facing the positive or negative impacts from different factors, different investment entities will adopt different directions and magnitudes of investment decisions, ultimately leading to asymmetric relationships between various variables and aggregate investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Long, Shaobo & Pei, Hongxia & Tian, Hao & Li, Fangfang, 2021. "Asymmetric impacts of economic policy uncertainty, capital cost, and raw material cost on China’s investment," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 129-144.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:72:y:2021:i:c:p:129-144
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.08.005
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Cost; Investment; NARDL;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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