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Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Investment and Output across Countries

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  • Byeongju Jeong

    (CERGE-EI, Charles University and the Academy of Science, Czech Republic)

Abstract

I present a model economy where policy uncertainty creates short-term bias in investment and leads to a higher capital price and lower long-run investment and output. I conduct a calibration exercise using a set of industry-level investment data across countries. Between the lowest-income and the highest-income countries, policy uncertainty can account for capital price and investment-level differences by a factor of about 3 and for the output-level difference by a factor of about 2. Copyright Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association

Suggested Citation

  • Byeongju Jeong, 2002. "Policy Uncertainty and Long-Run Investment and Output across Countries," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 363-392, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:43:y:2002:i:2:p:363-392
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    Cited by:

    1. Vatcharin Sirimaneetham, 2006. "Explaining policy volatility in developing countries," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 06/583, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    2. Vi Dung Ngo & Frank Janssen & Marine Falize, 2016. "An incentive-based model of international entrepreneurship in emerging and transition economies," Journal of International Entrepreneurship, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 52-74, March.
    3. Mellati, Ali, 2008. "Uncertainty and investment in private sector: An analytical argument and a review of the economy of Iran," MPRA Paper 26655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ngo, Vi Dung & Janssen, Frank & Leonidou, Leonidas C. & Christodoulides, Paul, 2016. "Domestic institutional attributes as drivers of export performance in an emerging and transition economy," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(8), pages 2911-2922.
    5. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.
    6. Malik, Adeel & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2009. "The geography of output volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 163-178, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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