Investment and Uncertainty in the G7
In this paper we assess the impact of a comprehensive range of macroeconomic and financial measures of uncertainty on business investment in the major industrial countries using Pooled Mean Group Panel Estimation. We discover a significant negative long run effect from both nominal and real exchange rate volatility using a GARCH (1,1) approach on aggregate investment for the G7. This is also found in poolable subgroups including all four larger European countries. Results for an adverse impact of uncertainty on investment are also found for volatility of long rates in recent years but not for inflation, share prices and industrial production. The results imply that to the extent that EMU favours lower exchange rate and long interest rate volatility, it will also be beneficial to investment.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 141 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com|
Postal:Kiellinie 66, D-24105 Kiel
Phone: +49 431 8814-1
Fax: +49 431 8814528
Web page: https://www.ifw-kiel.de/
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.springer.com/economics/international+economics/journal/10290/PS2|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996.
"Investment and Demand Uncertainty,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dr Martin Weale, 1999. "The Forecasting Performance of the OECD Composite Leading Indicators for France, Germany, Italy and," NIESR Discussion Papers 155, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Lee, J. & Shin, K., 1997.
"The Role of a Variable Input in the Relationship Between Investment and Uncertainty,"
97-98-11, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Kwanho Shin & Jaewoo Lee, 2000. "The Role of a Variable Input in the Relationship between Investment and Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 667-680, June.
- Lee, J. & Shin, K., 1996. "The Role of a Variable Input in the Relationship Between Investment and Uncertainty," Papers 96-97-08, California Irvine - School of Social Sciences.
- Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
- Joao Ejarque & Russell Cooper, 2000. "Exhuming Q: Market Power Versus Capital Market Imperfections," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 316, Society for Computational Economics.
- Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, .
"The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment,"
ICMM Discussion Papers
49, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
- Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
- Darby, Julia & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ireland, Jonathan & Piscitelli, Laura, 1998. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serven, Luis, 2002. "Real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2823, The World Bank.
- Alan Carruth & Andy Dickerson & Andrew Henley, 1998.
"What Do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?,"
Studies in Economics
9804, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-53, April.
- Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, .
"Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility,"
99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-15, May.
- Russell W. Cooper & Joao Ejarque, 2001. "Exhuming Q: market power capital market imperfections," Working Papers 611, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
- Goldberg, L.S. & Campa, J., 1993.
"Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rate and External Exposure,"
93-18, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Campa, Jose & Goldberg, Linda S., 1995. "Investment in manufacturing, exchange rates and external exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 297-320, May.
- Jose Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 1993. "Investment in Manufacturing, Exchange-Rates and External Exposure," NBER Working Papers 4378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charles I. Jones, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525.
- Andrew Blake, 1999. "An Artificial Neural Network System of Leading Indicators," NIESR Discussion Papers 144, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1992.
"Estimating Long-Run Relationships From Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9215, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
- Yongcheol Shin & Ron P Smith & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran, 1998. "Pooled Mean Group Estimation of Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels," ESE Discussion Papers 16, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Temple, Paul & Urga, Giovanni & Driver, Ciaran, 2001. "The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment in the UK: A Macro or Micro Phenomenon?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 361-82, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:141:y:2005:i:1:p:1-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Rebekah McClure)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.