IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nsr/niesrd/187.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Forecasting Performance of the OECD Composite Leading Indicators for France, Germany, Italy

Author

Listed:
  • Dr Martin Weale
  • Gonzalo Camba-Mendez
  • George Kapetanios
  • Ray Smith

    ()

Abstract

In this paper we present a methodology for evaluating the forecasting ability of composite leading indicator varianbes of industrial economic activity. The new methodology highlights the risks of variable selection in a VAR framework. The methodology is applied to investigate the performance of the OECD composite leading in forecasting industrial production in four European countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr Martin Weale & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios & Ray Smith, 1999. "The Forecasting Performance of the OECD Composite Leading Indicators for France, Germany, Italy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 155, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:187
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, pages 40-69.
    2. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 553-578.
    3. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, pages 1111-1146.
    4. repec:sae:niesru:v:164:y::i:1:p:90-99 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Andrew P. Blake, 1996. "Forecast Error Bounds By Stochastic Simulation," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 156(1), pages 72-79, May.
    6. Barrell, R. & Dury, K. & Hurst, I., 1999. "Analysing Monetary and Fiscal Policy Regimes using Deterministic and Stochastic Simulations," Economics Working Papers eco99/37, European University Institute.
    7. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice Some international evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1033-1067, June.
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 155-183.
    10. Clements,Michael & Hendry,David, 1998. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521632423, December.
    11. Hall, S G, 1985. "On the Solution of Large Economic Models with Consistent Expectations," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 157-161, May.
    12. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    13. Barrell, Ray & Sefton, James, 1997. "Fiscal Policy and the Masstricht Solvency Criteria," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(3), pages 259-279, June.
    14. Ray C. Fair, 1998. "Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 164(1), pages 90-99, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    2. Michael McMahon & Gabriel Sterne & Jamie Thompson, 2005. "The role of ICT in the global investment cycle," Bank of England working papers 257, Bank of England.
    3. Florian Pelgrin & Sebastian Schich, 2002. "Panel Cointegration Analysis of the Finance-Investment Link in OECD Countries," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2002-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    4. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00435685 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Davis, E. Philip & Stone, Mark R., 2004. "Corporate financial structure and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 65-91, September.
    6. Davis, E. Philip, 2002. "Institutional investors, corporate governance and the performance of the corporate sector," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 203-229, September.
    7. Yann Guy, 2010. "Industrial Major Firms Investments in a Financialized Context," Working Papers hal-00402021, HAL.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nsr:niesrd:187. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Library & Information Manager). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/niesruk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.