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On the Sensitivity of Firms' Investment to Cash Flow and Uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher F. Baum

    () (Boston College
    DIW Berlin)

  • Mustafa Caglayan

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Oleksandr Talavera

    () (Aberdeen Business School)

Abstract

We investigate the analytical and empirical linkages between cash flow, uncertainty and firms' capital investment behavior. Our empirical approach constructs measures of own- and market-specific uncertainty from firms' daily stock returns and S&P 500 index returns along with a CAPM-based risk measure. Our results indicate that even in the presence of important firm-specific variables, uncertainty is an important determinant of firms' investment behavior. Depending on the measure of uncertainty used, investment may be stimulated or curtailed by the effects of uncertainty on its own or through its interactions on cash flow.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "On the Sensitivity of Firms' Investment to Cash Flow and Uncertainty," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 638, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 26 Apr 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:638
    Note: previously circulated as "Firm Investment and Financial Frictions"
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wooster, Rossitza B. & Paul, Donna L., 2016. "Leadership positioning among U.S. firms investing in China," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 319-332.
    2. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Panagiotakopoulou, Sofia, 2018. "Oil price shocks and uncertainty: How stable is their relationship over time?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 42-53.
    3. Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2010. "The response of firms' leverage to uncertainty: Evidence from UK public versus non-public firms," Working Papers 2010019, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    4. Caglayan, Mustafa & Maioli, Sara & Mateut, Simona, 2012. "Inventories, sales uncertainty, and financial strength," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2512-2521.
    5. Mustafa Caglayan & Sara Maioli & Simona Mateut, "undated". "Inventories and sales uncertainty," Discussion Papers 11/02, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    6. Boldanov, Rustam & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Time-varying correlation between oil and stock market volatilities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-220.
    7. Caglayan, Mustafa & Xu, Bing, 2014. "Allocation effects of uncertainty on resources in Japan," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 23-26.
    8. Mustafa Caglayan & Abdul Rashid, 2014. "The Response Of Firms' Leverage To Risk: Evidence From Uk Public Versus Nonpublic Manufacturing Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 341-363, January.
    9. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2012. "Dynamic Co-movements between Stock Market Returns and Policy Uncertainty," MPRA Paper 42905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2013. "Dynamic co-movements of stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 87-92.
    11. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    12. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2011. "Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US," Working Papers 2011002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    13. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market volatility: evidence from European data," Working Papers 161, Bank of Greece.
    14. Milos Markovic & Michael Stemmer, 2017. "Firm Growth Dynamics and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Serbian Firms," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01489222, HAL.
    15. Caglayan, Mustafa & Demir, Firat, 2014. "Firm Productivity, Exchange Rate Movements, Sources of Finance, and Export Orientation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-219.
    16. Wensheng, Kang & Ratti, Ronald & Vespignani, Joaquin, 2017. "Impact of Global Uncertainty on the Global Economy and Large Developed and Developing Economies," MPRA Paper 82188, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. repec:eee:finlet:v:23:y:2017:i:c:p:50-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mustafa Caglayan & Firat Demir, 2011. "Firm productivity, exchange rate movements, sources of finance and export orientationInventories and sales uncertainty," Working Papers 2011004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
    19. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "Business uncertainty and investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 224-236.
    20. Milos Markovic & Michael A. Stemmer, 2017. "Firm Growth Dynamics and Financial Constraints: Evidence from Serbian Firms," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17012, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    21. Kropp, Jaclyn D. & Power, Gabriel J., 2016. "Asset fixity and backward-bending investment demand functions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 151-160.
    22. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin Vespignani, 2017. "The impact of global uncertainty on the global economy, and large developed and developing economies," CAMA Working Papers 2017-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    23. repec:eee:reveco:v:55:y:2018:i:c:p:130-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Mustafa Caglayan & Bing Xu, 2013. "Allocation Effects of Uncertainty on Resources in Japan," CFI Discussion Papers 1306, Centre for Finance and Investment, Heriot Watt University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital investment; cash flow; financial frictions; uncertainty; CAPM;

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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