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Risk aversion, intertemporal substitution, and the aggregate investment-uncertainty relationship

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  • Enrico Saltari
  • Davide Ticchi

Abstract

We analyze the role of risk aversion and intertemporal substitution in a simple dynamic investment model. Our main finding is that risk aversion cannot by itself explain a negative relationship between aggregate investment and aggregate uncertainty, as the effect of increased uncertainty in investement also depends on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. In particular, the relationship between aggregate investment and aggregate uncertainty is positive even if agents are very risk averse, as long as the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is low. A negative relationship requires thet the relative risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are both relatively high or both relatively low. We also show that the implications of our model are consistent with the available empirical evidence.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrico Saltari & Davide Ticchi, 2002. "Risk aversion, intertemporal substitution, and the aggregate investment-uncertainty relationship," Working Papers in Public Economics 69, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    • Handle: RePEc:sap:wpaper:wp69
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    Cited by:

    1. Inekwe John Nkwoma, 2014. "Business Cycle Variability and Growth Linkage," Monash Economics Working Papers 38-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    2. Julien Hugonnier & Florian Pelgrin & Pascal St-Amour, 2010. "A structural analysis of the health expenditures and portfolio choices of retired agents," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-29, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. S. Ananda & Raghavendra Prasanna Kumar & Tamanna Dalwai, 2024. "Impact of financial literacy on savings behavior: the moderation role of risk aversion and financial confidence," Journal of Financial Services Marketing, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 29(3), pages 843-854, September.
    4. Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Balanced-Budget Fiscal Stimuli of Investment and Welfare Value," EconPol Working Paper 28, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    5. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of oil price uncertainty on corporate investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Barbara Annicchiarico & Alessandra Pelloni & Fabrizio Valenti, 2016. "Volatility and Growth with Recursive Preferences," CEIS Research Paper 387, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jun 2016.
    7. Marco Di Pietro & Enrico Saltari, 2018. "Economic Fluctuations in the U.S. and Euro Area: Quantifying the Contribution of Technical Change," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 85(1), pages 203-216, July.
    8. Meinen, Philipp & Roehe, Oke, 2017. "On measuring uncertainty and its impact on investment: Cross-country evidence from the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 161-179.
    9. Yi, Xingjian & Liu, Sheng & Wu, Zhouheng, 2022. "What drives credit expansion worldwide?——An empirical investigation with long-term cross-country panel data," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 225-242.
    10. Dosi Cesare & Moretto Michele & Tamborini Roberto, 2022. "Do balanced-budget fiscal stimuli of investment increase its economic value?," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 157-179, May.
    11. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso & Roberto Tamborini, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Future of Quantitative Easing in the Euro Area: Three Scenarios with a Trilemma," DEM Working Papers 2020/11, Department of Economics and Management.
    12. Julien Hugonnier & Florian Pelgrin, 2013. "Health and (Other) Asset Holdings," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(2), pages 663-710.
    13. Vasia Panousi & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "Investment, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 1113-1148, June.
    14. Goodness C. Aye & Laurence Harris, 2019. "The effect of real exchange rate volatility on income distribution in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    15. Gianluca Femminis, 2019. "Risk aversion heterogeneity and the investment–uncertainty relationship," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 223-264, August.
    16. Isoré, Marlène & Szczerbowicz, Urszula, 2017. "Disaster risk and preference shifts in a New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 97-125.
    17. Herbst, Anthony F. & Wu, Joseph S.K. & Ho, Chi Pui, 2012. "Relationship between risk attitude and economic recovery in optimal growth theory," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 141-150.
    18. Michael Nwogugu, 2020. "Regret Theory And Asset Pricing Anomalies In Incomplete Markets With Dynamic Un-Aggregated Preferences," Papers 2005.01709, arXiv.org.
    19. Daniel Dejuan-Bitria & Corinna Ghirelli, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and investment in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 351-388, September.
    20. Addessi, William & Saltari, Enrico, 2011. "The effect of debt tax benefits on firm investment decisions," MPRA Paper 35436, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Daniel Dejuán & Corinna Ghirelli, 2018. "Policy uncertainty and investment in Spain," Working Papers 1848, Banco de España.
    22. Saltari, E. & Travaglini, G., 2012. "A note on optimal capital stock and financing constraints," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1177-1180.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity

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