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What is the Investment Loss due to Uncertainty?

Author

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  • Theodore Panagiotidis

    () (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece; Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis)

  • Panagiotis Printzis

    () (Department of Business Administration, University of Macedonia, Greece)

Abstract

We investigate the effect of uncertainty on investment. We employ a unique dataset of 25000 Greek firms' balance sheets for 14 years covering the period before and after the eurozone crisis. A dynamic factor model is employed to proxy uncertainty. The investment performance of 14 sectors is examined within a dynamic investment model. Robust GMM estimates of the investment rate model reveal a high degree of heterogeneity among these sectors. Overall uncertainty affects negatively investment performance and this effect substantially increased in the years of crisis. Agriculture and Mining are the least affected and the most affected ones include Manufacturing, Real Estate and Hotels. Focusing on the response of investment to uncertainty, it emerges that (relative) smaller firms are affected more compared to larger ones.

Suggested Citation

  • Theodore Panagiotidis & Panagiotis Printzis, 2019. "What is the Investment Loss due to Uncertainty?," Working Paper series 19-06, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:19-06
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    Keywords

    Greek firms; Uncertainty; Volatility; GMM; Panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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