IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Econometric Modelling of UK Aggregate Investment: The Role of Profits and Uncertainty

  • Carruth, Alan
  • Dickerson, Andrew
  • Henley, Andrew

This paper focuses on the determinants of aggregate investment spending in the UK for the industrial and commercial company (ICC) sector. It complements recent work by Cuthbertson and Gasparro (1995), who study an augmented Tobin's q model of investment in the manufacturing sector. Important focal points of our analysis are a role for real profits (internal funds), which allow firms to combat liquidity constraints when access to capital markets is not perfect, Chirinko (1987), and the impact of irreversibility and uncertainty in determining aggregate investment spending. Earlier work on manufacturing investment by Bean (1981a) developed a dynamic, error correction specification based on the flexible accelerator model. Following Cuthbertson and Gasparro we use multivariate cointegration techniques to discover a parsimonious dynamic model, which can explain the 1980s and early 1990s investment experience of the ICC sector. Our results show that a model based on investment and output alone does not cointegrate, and a short-run dynamic model of these variables suffers from heteroscedasticity. This may be consistent with the idea that increased (uncontrolled for) uncertainty has led to increased volatility in investment. The possibility that movements in the real price of gold reflect uncertainty in financial and other traded commodity markets is explored. Investigation of this more general model indicates that real profits and the real price of gold can enhance the explanation of investment spending by the ICC sector.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/servlet/useragent?func=synergy&synergyAction=showTOC&journalCode=manc&volume=68&issue=3&year=2000&part=null
File Function: link to full text
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by University of Manchester in its journal Manchester School.

Volume (Year): 68 (2000)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 276-300

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:3:p:276-300
Contact details of provider: Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1463-6786

More information through EDIRC

Order Information: Web: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/subs.asp?ref=1463-6786

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Bond, Stephen R & Jenkinson, Tim, 1996. "The Assessment: Investment Performance and Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 1-29, Summer.
  2. John Huizinga, 1993. "Inflation uncertainty, relative price uncertainty, and investment in U.S. manufacturing," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 521-557.
  3. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Fumio Hayashi & Tohru Inoue, 1990. "The Relation Between Firm Growth and Q with Multiple Capital Goods: Theory and Evidence from Panel Data on Japanese Firms," NBER Working Papers 3326, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Bean, C R, 1981. "A New Approach to the Empirical Investigation of Investment Expenditures: A Comment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 104-05, March.
  6. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1987. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke, 1980. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," NBER Working Papers 0502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen & Devereux, Michael & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1992. "Investment and Tobin's Q: Evidence from company panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1-2), pages 233-257.
  10. Cuthbertson, K. & Gasparro, D., 1995. "Fixed investment decisions in UK manufacturing: The importance of Tobin's Q, output and debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 919-941, May.
  11. Bond, Stephen & Meghir, Costas, 1994. "Dynamic Investment Models and the Firm's Financial Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 197-222, April.
  12. Costrell, Robert M, 1983. "Profitability and Aggregate Investment under Demand Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(369), pages 166-81, March.
  13. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Dividend Taxes, Corporate Investment, and "Q"," NBER Working Papers 0829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
  15. Bils, Mark, 1987. "The Cyclical Behavior of Marginal Cost and Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 838-55, December.
  16. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  17. Goldberg, Linda S, 1993. "Exchange Rates and Investment in United States Industry," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 575-88, November.
  18. Oulton, Nicholas, 1981. "Aggregate Investment and Tobin's Q: The Evidence from Britain," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(2), pages 177-202, July.
  19. Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
  20. Peter C.B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1989. "Estimating Long Run Economic Equilibria," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 928, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  21. Chirinko, Robert S., 1987. "Tobin's Q and financial policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-87, January.
  22. Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
  23. Favero, Carlo A & Pesaran, M Hashem & Sharma, Sunil, 1994. "A Duration Model of Irreversible Oil Investment: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(S), pages S95-112, Suppl. De.
  24. Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. " What Do We Know about Investment under Uncertainty?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 119-53, April.
  25. Huizinga, John, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 521-49, August.
  26. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  27. Rotemberg, Julio J & Saloner, Garth, 1986. "A Supergame-Theoretic Model of Price Wars during Booms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 390-407, June.
  28. Episcopos, Athanasios, 1995. "Evidence on the relationship between uncertainty and irreversible investment," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 41-52.
  29. Bean, Charles R, 1981. "An Econometric Model of Manufacturing Investment in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 106-21, March.
  30. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  31. King, Mervyn A, 1974. "Taxation and the Cost of Capital," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 21-35, January.
  32. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:68:y:2000:i:3:p:276-300. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing)

or (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.