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The Effect of Uncertainty on UK Investment Authorisation: Pooled Estimators vs. Heterogeneous Estimators1

Author

Listed:
  • Ciaran Driver

    (Imperial College Management School)

  • Katsushi Imai

    (Imperial College Management School)

  • Paul Temple

    (Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

  • Giovanni Urga

    (City University Business School)

Abstract

This paper compares pooled models of capital investment with non-pooled models using the UK's Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey for the U.K., particularly focusing on the effect of uncertainty on investment. The uncertainty measure is based on the cross sectional dispersion of expectations. The panel data estimation shows that uncertainty has negative effects, which are non negligible in terms of magnitude, on investment. However, if we look at the estimation results at the industry level, we find a great diversity in elasticity and t-statistics, providing valuable information not available from the pooled model. Finally, we compare forecast performances based on the above models. It is confirmed that pooled estimators are generally better than non-pooled estimators in terms of forecast performance, but the difference between the two is not very large.

Suggested Citation

  • Ciaran Driver & Katsushi Imai & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2002. "The Effect of Uncertainty on UK Investment Authorisation: Pooled Estimators vs. Heterogeneous Estimators1," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B3-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:b3-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ciaran Driver & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2005. "Explaining the Diversity of Industry Investment Responses to Uncertainty Using Long Run Panel Survey Data," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0405, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Uncertainty; Panel Data Estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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