IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Explaining the Diversity of Industry Investment Responses to Uncertainty Using Long Run Panel Survey Data

  • Ciaran Driver

    (Tanaka Business School, Imperial College, London)

  • Paul Temple

    (University of Surrey)

  • Giovanni Urga

    (Cass Business School, London)

This paper presents an empirical study of the channels of influence from uncertainty to fixed investment suggested by real options theory. Using panel data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey, we report OLS estimates of the impact of uncertainty on investment where the regressors are augmented by cross-sectional averages of the dependent variable and of the individual specific regressors, as recently suggested by Pesaran (2004). The cross-industry pattern of results is checked for consistency with the pattern predicted by real options theory, using a specially constructed data set of industrial characteristics. We find that irreversibility is able to predict the pattern detected, but only when combined with a measure of the information advantage of delay. There is also evidence for expansion options effects; industries with high R&D and advertising intensities tend to have positive uncertainty effects.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.fahs.surrey.ac.uk/economics/discussion_papers/2005/DP04-05.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Surrey in its series School of Economics Discussion Papers with number 0405.

as
in new window

Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0405
Contact details of provider: Postal: Guildford, Surrey GU2 5XH
Phone: (01483) 259380
Fax: (01483) 259548
Web page: http://www.surrey.ac.uk/economics/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  2. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-57, April.
  3. Ciaran Driver & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "Transforming Qualitative Survey Data: Performance Comparisons for the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 71-89, 02.
  4. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1993. "A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 4296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice C. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, 1995. "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Pindyck, Robert S, 1993. "A Note on Competitive Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 273-77, March.
  7. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2004. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 1331, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Hall, B. & Mairesse, J. & Mulkay, B., 1998. "Firm-Level Investment in France and the United States: An Exploration of What We Have Learned in Twenty Years," Economics Papers 143, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  10. Ciaran Driver & Katsushi Imai & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2002. "The Effect of Uncertainty on UK Investment Authorisation: Pooled Estimators vs. Heterogeneous Estimators1," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B3-4, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  11. Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October.
  13. Owen Lamont, 1999. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 6973, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Bar-Ilan, Avner & Strange, William C, 1996. "Investment Lags," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 610-22, June.
  15. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1997. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," NBER Working Papers 5996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2001. "Irreversible Investment with Strategic Interactions," CEPR Discussion Papers 3013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March.
  18. Ciaran Driver & Katsushi Imai & Paul Temple & Giovanni Urga, 2004. "The effect of uncertainty on UK investment authorisation: Homogenous vs. heterogeneous estimators," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 115-128, January.
  19. Proietti, Tommaso, 1996. "Persistence of Shocks on Seasonal Processes," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 383-98, July-Aug..
  20. Davies, Stephen & Lyons, Bruce, 1996. "Industrial Organization in the European Union: Structure, Strategy, and the Competitive Mechanism," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198289739, March.
  21. Bronwyn Hall & Jacques Mairesse, 1998. "Firm-Level Investment in France and the United States: An exploration of what we have learned in twenty years," Economics Series Working Papers 1998-W09, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sur:surrec:0405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alex Mandilaras)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.