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Investment Plans and Stock Returns

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  • Owen A. Lamont

    (University of Chicago and NBER)

Abstract

When the discount rate falls, investment should rise. Thus with time-varying discount rates and instantly changing investment, investment should positively covary with current stock returns and negatively covary with future stock returns. Aggregate nonresidential U.S. investment contradicts both these implications, probably because of investment lags. Investment plans, however, satisfy both implications. These investment plans, from a U.S. government survey of firms, are highly informative measures of expected investment and explain more than three-quarters of the variation in real annual aggregate investment growth. Plans have substantial forecasting power for excess stock returns, showing that time-varying risk premia affect investment. Copyright The American Finance Association 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Owen A. Lamont, 2000. "Investment Plans and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2719-2745, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:6:p:2719-2745
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Randall Morck & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment: Is the Market a Sideshow?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 157-216.
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    8. Richard W. Kopcke, 1993. "Forecasting investment with models and surveys of capital spending," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 47-69.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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