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Uncertainty, investment, and managerial incentives

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  • Glover, Brent
  • Levine, Oliver

Abstract

This study provides evidence that managerial incentives, shaped by compensation contracts, help to explain the empirical relationship between uncertainty and investment. We develop a model in which the manager, compensated with an equity-based contract, makes investment decisions for a firm that faces time-varying volatility. The contract creates incentives that affect both the sign and magnitude of a manager׳s optimal response to volatility shocks. The model is calibrated using compensation data to quantify this predicted investment response for a large panel of firms. Our estimates help explain the variation in firm-level investment responses to volatility shocks observed in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Glover, Brent & Levine, Oliver, 2015. "Uncertainty, investment, and managerial incentives," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 121-137.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:69:y:2015:i:c:p:121-137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.11.004
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    5. Stéphane Lhuissier & Fabien Tripier, 2016. "Do Uncertainty Shocks Always Matter for Business Cycles?," Working Papers 2016-19, CEPII research center.
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    8. McCloud, Nadine, 2022. "Does domestic investment respond to inflation targeting? A synthetic control investigation," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 98-134.
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    11. Meinen, Philipp & Roehe, Oke, 2017. "On measuring uncertainty and its impact on investment: Cross-country evidence from the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 161-179.
    12. Ramona Westermann, 2018. "Measuring Agency Costs over the Business Cycle," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5748-5768, December.
    13. Claudiu Tiberiu Albulescu & Şerban Miclea & Simina Silvana Suciu & Matei Tămăşilă, 2018. "Firm-level investment in the extractive industry from CEE countries: the role of macroeconomic uncertainty and internal conditions," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 193-208, June.
    14. Cui, Xue & Shibata, Takashi, 2017. "Investment strategies, reversibility, and asymmetric information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(3), pages 1109-1122.
    15. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    16. Pancost, N. Aaron & Robatto, Roberto, 2019. "The effects of capital requirements on good and bad risk-taking," ESRB Working Paper Series 104, European Systemic Risk Board.
    17. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil & Rakeeb, Fathima Roshan, 2021. "Investment, firm-specific uncertainty, and market power in South Africa," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 389-395.
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    20. Deng, Binbin, 2016. "A Simple Model of Managerial Incentives and Portfolio-Investment Decision," MPRA Paper 79959, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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