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Optimal Investment Strategies under Demand and Tax Policy Uncertainty

  • Hjalmar Boehm
  • Michael Funke

In this paper we offer an analysis of the effects of uncertainty about future tax policy on irreversible investment. The main message of the paper is that investment is not much affected by the degreee of tax policy uncertainty. This is true regardless of whether random tax changes are determined endogenously or exogenously. The paper therefore indicates that reducing tax policy uncertainty is probably no magic bullet to increase private investment spending

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2000/wp-cesifo-2000-07/cesifo_wp311.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 311.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_311
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  1. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  2. Kevin A. Hassett & Gilbert E. Metcalf, 1998. "Investment With Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 9823, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  3. Andrew B. Abel & Avinash K. Dixit & Janice B. Eberly & Robert S. Pindyck, . "Options, the Value of Capital, and Investment," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-95, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  4. Abel, Andrew B. & Eberly, Janice C., 1999. "The effects of irreversibility and uncertainty on capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 339-377, December.
  5. Dani Rodrik, 1989. "Policy Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 2999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Rainer Niemann, 1999. "Neutral Taxation under Uncertainty - a Real Options Approach," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 56(1), pages 51-66, March.
  7. Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-84, December.
  9. Rosanne Altshuler & T. Scott Newlon & Harry Grubert, 2002. "Has U.S. Investment Abroad Become More Sensitive to Tax Rates?," Departmental Working Papers 199806, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  10. Hines, James R. Jr., 1999. "Lessons from Behavioral Responses to International Taxation," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 2), pages 305-22, June.
  11. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Kanniainen, Vesa & Sodersten, Jan, 1998. "Tax policy uncertainty and corporate investment: A theory of tax-induced investment spurts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 17-48, July.
  12. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy Marion, 1995. "Volatility, Investment and Disappointment Aversion," NBER Working Papers 5386, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Zeira, Joseph, 1990. "Cost uncertainty and the rate of investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 53-63, February.
  14. Hopenhayn, H. & Maniagurria, M.E., 1996. "Policy Variability and Economic Growth," RCER Working Papers 422, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  15. Hans-Werner Sinn, 1995. "Staggering along: wages policy and investment support in East Germany," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 3(4), pages 403-426, December.
  16. Pennings, Enrico, 2000. "Taxes and stimuli of investment under uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 383-391, February.
  17. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 217-28, June.
  18. Douglas G. Steigerwald & Charles Stuart, 1997. "Econometric Estimation Of Foresight: Tax Policy And Investment In The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 32-40, February.
  19. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1996. "Optimal Investment with Costly Reversibility," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 581-93, October.
  20. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
  21. Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Tax Policy and Investment," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53049, 4.
  22. Caballero, Ricardo J, 1991. "On the Sign of the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 279-88, March.
  23. Mackie-Mason, Jeffrey K., 1990. "Some nonlinear tax effects on asset values and investment decisions under uncertainty," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 301-327, August.
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