IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_2075.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Impact of Tax Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Rainer Niemann

Abstract

Tax legislation, fiscal authorities, and tax courts create tax uncertainty by frequent tax reforms and various different interpretations of the tax law. Moreover, investors generate model-specific tax uncertainty by using simplified models that anticipate the actual tax base incorrectly. I analyze the effects of stochastic taxation on investment behavior in a real options model. The investor holds an option to invest in an irreversible project with stochastic cash flows. To cover the effects of both tax base and tax rate uncertainty, the investment’s tax payment is modelled as a stochastic process. Increased tax uncertainty has an ambiguous impact on investment timing. The view that tax uncertainty depresses real investment is rejected. A higher expected tax payment delays investment. A higher tax rate on interest income affects investment timing ambiguously.

Suggested Citation

  • Rainer Niemann, 2007. "The Impact of Tax Uncertainty on Irreversible Investment," CESifo Working Paper Series 2075, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp2075.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    2. Auerbach, Alan J & Hines, James R, Jr, 1988. "Investment Tax Incentives and Frequent Tax Reforms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 211-216, May.
    3. Skinner, Jonathan, 1988. "The welfare cost of uncertain tax policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 129-145, November.
    4. Panteghini Paolo, 2001. "On Corporate Tax Asymmetries and Neutrality," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 269-286, August.
    5. Rainer Niemann, 2004. "Tax Rate Uncertainty, Investment Decisions, and Tax Neutrality," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 11(3), pages 265-281, May.
    6. Niemann Rainer & Sureth Caren, 2005. "Capital Budgeting with Taxes under Uncertainty and Irreversibility / Investitionsplanung mit Steuern bei Unsicherheit und Irreversibilität," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(1), pages 77-95, February.
    7. Bizer, David S & Judd, Kenneth L, 1989. "Taxation and Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 331-336, May.
    8. Alm, James, 1988. "Uncertain Tax Policies, Individual Behavior, and Welfare," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 237-245, March.
    9. Alan J. Auerbach & James R. Hines, Jr., 1987. "Anticipated Tax Changes and the Timing of Investment," NBER Chapters, in: The Effects of Taxation on Capital Accumulation, pages 163-200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Paolo M. Panteghini, 2002. "Corporate Tax Asymmetries under Investment Irreversibility," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 58(3), pages 207-226, July.
    11. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    12. Caren Sureth, 2002. "Partially Irreversible Investment Decisions and Taxation under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 3(2), pages 185-221, May.
    13. Sureth Caren, 2002. "Partially Irreversible Investment Decisions and Taxation under Uncertainty: A Real Option Approach," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 185-221, May.
    14. John Pointon, 1998. "Share Valuation under Geometric Brownian Motion with a Poisson Imputation Tax Change," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1&2), pages 103-113.
    15. Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Tax Policy and Investment," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53049, September.
    16. Hjalmar Boehm & Michael Funke, 2000. "Optimal Investment Strategies under Demand and Tax Policy Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 311, CESifo.
    17. Rainer Niemann, 1999. "Neutral Taxation under Uncertainty - a Real Options Approach," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 56(1), pages 51-66, March.
    18. John Pointon, 1998. "Share Valuation under Geometric Brownian Motion with a Poisson Imputation Tax Change," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1‐2), pages 103-113, January.
    19. Sialm, Clemens, 2006. "Stochastic taxation and asset pricing in dynamic general equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 511-540, March.
    20. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth, Caren, 2004. "Tax neutrality under irreversibility and risk aversion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 43-47, July.
    21. Alvarez, Luis H. R. & Kanniainen, Vesa & Sodersten, Jan, 1998. "Tax policy uncertainty and corporate investment: A theory of tax-induced investment spurts," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 17-48, July.
    22. Elettra Agliardi, 2001. "Taxation and Investment Decisions: A Real Options Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 44-55, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Niemann, Rainer, 2006. "The impact of tax uncertainty on irreversible investment," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 21, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    2. Rainer Niemann & Caren Sureth-Sloane, 2016. "Does Capital Tax Uncertainty Delay Irreversible Risky Investment?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6046, CESifo.
    3. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth, Caren, 2016. "Does capital tax uncertainty delay irreversible risky investment?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 209, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    4. Luis H. R. Alvarez & Erkki Koskela, 2005. "Progressive Taxation and Irreversible Investment under Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 1377, CESifo.
    5. Alessandro Fedele & Paolo M. Panteghini & Sergio Vergalli, 2011. "Optimal Investment and Financial Strategies under Tax‐Rate Uncertainty," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 12(4), pages 438-468, November.
    6. Ortmann, Regina, 2015. "Uncertainty in weighting formulary apportionment factors and its impact on after-tax income of multinational groups," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 184, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    7. Rainer Niemann, 2001. "Tax Rate Uncertainty and Investment Behavior," CESifo Working Paper Series 557, CESifo.
    8. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 100-108, January.
    9. Wong, Kit Pong, 2011. "Progressive taxation and the intensity and timing of investment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 100-108.
    10. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth, Caren, 2008. "Steuern und Risiko als substitutionale oder komplementäre Determinanten unternehmerischer Investitionspolitik?," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 51, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    11. Wong, Kit Pong, 2009. "Progressive taxation, tax exemption, and corporate liquidation policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 295-299, March.
    12. Sureth, Caren & Voß, Armin, 2005. "Investitionsbereitschaft und zeitliche Indifferenz bei Realinvestitionen unter Unsicherheit und Steuern," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 2, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    13. James R. Hines Jr. & Michael Keen, 2018. "Certain Effects of Uncertain Taxes," NBER Working Papers 25388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Hines Jr., James R. & Keen, Michael J., 2021. "Certain effects of random taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    15. Unal, Umut, 2015. "Capital Income Taxation and Welfare under DSGE Framework," MPRA Paper 68416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Gries, Thomas & Prior, Ulrich & Sureth, Caren, 2007. "Taxation of risky investment and paradoxical investor behavior," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 26, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    17. Sumru Altug & Fanny S. Demers & Michel Demers, 2004. "Tax Policy and Irreversible Investment," CDMA Working Paper Series 200404, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
    18. Panteghini Paolo, 2001. "On Corporate Tax Asymmetries and Neutrality," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(3), pages 269-286, August.
    19. Mehrmann, Annika & Schneider, Georg & Sureth, Caren, 2012. "Asymmetric taxation of profits and losses and its influence on investment timing: Paradoxical effects of tax increases," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 134, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.
    20. Niemann, Rainer & Sureth, Caren, 2009. "Investment effects of capital gains taxation under simultaneous investment and abandonment flexibility," arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research 77, arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.