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Taxation of risky investment and paradoxical investor behavior

  • Gries, Thomas
  • Prior, Ulrich
  • Sureth, Caren

Under uncertainty and irreversibility, real option-based models are widely accepted for assessing investment projects. So far the existing post-tax analyses do not provide a general analytical description of investor reactions towards profit tax rate changes. This paper sets out to fill part of the void. We implement a simple tax system and focus on risky capital market investment and an option to wait. Taxes affect risk-free and risky capital market investment asymmetrically and hence cause distortions. We analytically identify a set of neutral tax rates (tax regimes) that preserve the critical post-tax investment threshold in case of tax rate changes as well as general normal and paradoxical settings. Unlike for other tax paradoxa neither depreciation rules nor loss offset restrictions are responsible for the observed paradoxical reaction. Identifying normal and paradoxical tax regimes can be regarded as a first step to a generalized description of tax effects under uncertainty, both for individual project evaluation as well as for understanding tax effects on an aggregate level.

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Paper provided by arqus - Arbeitskreis Quantitative Steuerlehre in its series arqus Discussion Papers in Quantitative Tax Research with number 26.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:arqudp:26
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  1. Paolo M. Panteghini, 2004. "Wide versus Narrow Tax Bases under Optimal Investment Timing," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 60(4), pages 482-, December.
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  8. Jennifer L. Blouin & Jana Smith Raedy & Douglas A. Shackelford, 2003. "Capital Gains Taxes and Equity Trading: Empirical Evidence," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 611-651, 09.
  9. Agliardi, Elettra, 2001. "Taxation and Investment Decisions: A Real Options Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 44-55, March.
  10. Kelly D. Edmiston, 2001. "Tax Uncertainty and Investment: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU paper0105, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  11. Paolo M. Panteghini, 2001. "Dual income taxation : the choice of the imputed rate of return," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 5-13, Spring.
  12. Douglas A. Shackelford, 2002. "Intertemporal Tax Discontinuities," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 205-222, 03.
  13. Andrea Gamba & Gordon A. Sick & Carmen Aranda León, 2008. "Investment under Uncertainty, Debt and Taxes," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 37(1), pages 31-58, 02.
  14. Paolo M. Panteghini & Carlo Scarpa, 2003. "Irreversible Investments and Regulatory Risk," CESifo Working Paper Series 934, CESifo Group Munich.
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