IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

UK business investment: long-run elasticities and short-run dynamics

  • Colin Ellis
  • Simon Price

Theory tells us that output, the capital stock and the user cost of capital are related. From the capital accumulation identity, it also follows that the capital stock and investment have a long-run proportional relationship. The dynamic structure thus implies a multi-cointegrating framework, in which separate cointegrating relationships are identifiable. This has been used to justify the estimation of investment equations embodying a reduced-form long-run relationship between investment and output (rather than between the capital stock and output). In this paper, a new investment equation is estimated in the full structural framework, exploiting a measure of the capital stock constructed by the Bank, and a long series for the cost of capital. A CES production function is assumed, and a well-determined estimate of the elasticity of substitution is obtained by a variety of measures. The robust result is that the elasticity of substitution is significantly different from unity (the Cobb-Douglas case), at about 0.45. Overidentifying restrictions on the long-run relationship are all accepted. Although the key long-run parameter (the elasticity of substitution) is highly robust to alternative specifications, single-equation investment relationships may obscure the dynamics. There is evidence that the Johansen method is oversized, but given this, a test for excluding the capital accumulation identity from the investment equation is much better than using a single-equation ECM.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.org/mmfc03/Ellis.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 with number 27.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 27 Sep 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc03:27
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andrew & Henley, Andrew, 2000. "Econometric Modelling of UK Aggregate Investment: The Role of Profits and Uncertainty," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(3), pages 276-300, June.
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  3. Abel, Andrew B & Blanchard, Olivier J, 1986. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(2), pages 249-73, March.
  4. Stephen Oliner & Glenn Rudebusch & Daniel Sichel, 1993. "New and old models of business investment: a comparison of forecasting performance," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Hasan Bakhshi & Nicholas Oulton & Jamie Thompson, 2003. "Modelling investment when relative prices are trending: theory and evidence for the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 189, Bank of England.
  6. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2001. "Time-Varying Risk Premia and the Cost of Capital: An Alternative Implication of the Q Theory of Investment," CEPR Discussion Papers 3103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Barrell, Ray & Pain, Nigel, 1997. "Foreign Direct Investment, Technological Change, and Economic Growth within Europe," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(445), pages 1770-86, November.
  8. Nicholas Oulton & Sylaja Srinivasan, 2003. "Capital stocks, capital services, and depreciation: an integrated framework," Bank of England working papers 192, Bank of England.
  9. Nigel Pain, 2000. "Inward investment and technical progress in the United Kingdom manufacturing sector," NIESR Discussion Papers 167, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  10. Bean, Charles R, 1981. "An Econometric Model of Manufacturing Investment in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 91(361), pages 106-21, March.
  11. Robert Chirinko & Steven M. Fazzari & Andrew P. Meyer, 2002. "That Elusive Elasticity: A Long-panel Approach to Estimating the Price Sensitivity of Business Capital," Emory Economics 0202, Department of Economics, Emory University (Atlanta).
  12. Davidson, James, 1994. "Identifying Cointegrating Regressions by the Rank Condition," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 56(1), pages 105-10, February.
  13. Greenslade, Jennifer V. & Hall, Stephen G. & Henry, S. G. Brian, 2002. "On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: a modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1517-1537, August.
  14. Larsen, Jens & Katharine Neiss & Fergal Shortall, 2002. "Factor Utilisation and Productivity Estimates for the United Kingdom," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 120, Royal Economic Society.
  15. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-24, January.
  16. Davidson, James, 1998. "Structural relations, cointegration and identification: some simple results and their application," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 87-113, August.
  17. Tevlin, Stacey & Whelan, Karl, 2003. " Explaining the Investment Boom of the 1990s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 1-22, February.
  18. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1999. " Multicointegration in Stock-Flow Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(2), pages 237-54, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc03:27. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.