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Testing the Q theory of investment in the frequency domain

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  • Juha Kilponen

    (Bank of Finland – Monetary Policy and Research Department)

  • Fabio Verona

    (Bank of Finland – Monetary Policy and Research Department, and University of Porto – cef.up)

Abstract

We revisit the empirical performance of the Q theory of investment, explicitly taking into account the frequency dependence of investment, Tobin’s Q, and cash flow. The time series are decomposed into orthogonal components of different frequencies using wavelet multiresolution analysis. We find that the Q theory fits the data much better than might be expected (both in-sample and out-of-sample) when the frequency relationship between the variables is taken into account. Merging the wavelet approach and proxies for Q recently suggested in the investment literature also significantly improves the quality of short-term forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Juha Kilponen & Fabio Verona, 2017. "Testing the Q theory of investment in the frequency domain," CEF.UP Working Papers 1701, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    • Handle: RePEc:por:cetedp:1701
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    Cited by:

    1. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 228-242.
    2. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "The equity risk premium and the low frequency of the term spread," Research Discussion Papers 7/2018, Bank of Finland.
    3. Nippala, Veera & Sinivuori, Taina, 2023. "Forecasting private investment in Finland using Q-theory and frequency decomposition," BoF Economics Review 3/2023, Bank of Finland.
    4. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    5. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2021. "Time-frequency forecast of the equity premium," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(12), pages 2119-2135, December.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_026 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sinem Celik Girgin & Thanasis Karlis & Hong-Oanh Nguyen, 2018. "A Critical Review of the Literature on Firm-Level Theories on Ship Investment," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, January.
    9. Verona, Fabio, 2017. "Q, investment, and the financial cycle," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 26/2017, Bank of Finland.
    10. Verona, Fabio, 2017. "Q, investment, and the financial cycle," Research Discussion Papers 26/2017, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; Tobin’s Q; bond Q; intangible Q; intangible investment; cash flow; discrete wavelets; frequency estimation; forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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