IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/por/cetedp/1701.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Testing the Q theory of investment in the frequency domain

Author

Listed:
  • Juha Kilponen

    (Bank of Finland – Monetary Policy and Research Department)

  • Fabio Verona

    (Bank of Finland – Monetary Policy and Research Department, and University of Porto – cef.up)

Abstract

We revisit the empirical performance of the Q theory of investment, explicitly taking into account the frequency dependence of investment, Tobin’s Q, and cash flow. The time series are decomposed into orthogonal components of different frequencies using wavelet multiresolution analysis. We find that the Q theory fits the data much better than might be expected (both in-sample and out-of-sample) when the frequency relationship between the variables is taken into account. Merging the wavelet approach and proxies for Q recently suggested in the investment literature also significantly improves the quality of short-term forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Juha Kilponen & Fabio Verona, 2017. "Testing the Q theory of investment in the frequency domain," CEF.UP Working Papers 1701, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  • Handle: RePEc:por:cetedp:1701
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cefup.fep.up.pt/uploads/WorkingPapers/wp1701.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 228-242.
    2. Chirinko, Robert S, 1993. "Business Fixed Investment Spending: Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1875-1911, December.
    3. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2019. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 568-591.
    4. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 2002. "Time-varying risk premia and the cost of capital: An alternative implication of the Q theory of investment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 31-66, January.
    5. Robert S. Chirinko, 1992. "Business Fixed Investment Spending: A Critical survey of Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications," Working Papers 9213, Harris School of Public Policy Studies, University of Chicago.
    6. Jason G. Cummins & Kevin A. Hassett & Stephen D. Oliner, 2006. "Investment Behavior, Observable Expectations, and Internal Funds," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 796-810, June.
    7. Mussa, Michael L, 1977. "External and Internal Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Aggregate and Firm Investment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(174), pages 163-178, May.
    8. Sami Alpanda & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2010. "Oil Crisis, Energy-Saving Technological Change and the Stock Market Crash of 1973-74," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(4), pages 824-842, October.
    9. Marcelo L. Veracierto, 2002. "Plant-Level Irreversible Investment and Equilibrium Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 181-197, March.
    10. Engle, Robert F & Foley, Duncan K, 1975. "An Asset Price Model of Aggregate Investment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 625-647, October.
    11. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    12. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
    13. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, August.
    14. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and inflation: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 435-444, June.
    15. Aubhik Khan & Julia K. Thomas, 2008. "Idiosyncratic Shocks and the Role of Nonconvexities in Plant and Aggregate Investment Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(2), pages 395-436, March.
    16. Peters, Ryan H. & Taylor, Lucian A., 2017. "Intangible capital and the investment-q relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 251-272.
    17. Fabio Verona, 2014. "Investment Dynamics with Information Costs," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1627-1656, December.
    18. Hayashi, Fumio, 1982. "Tobin's Marginal q and Average q: A Neoclassical Interpretation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 213-224, January.
    19. Gençay, Ramazan & Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon J., 2001. "An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796708.
    20. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James Bernard Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2011. "The US Wage Phillips Curve across Frequencies and over Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(4), pages 489-508, August.
    21. Robert S. Chirinko, 1992. "Business Fixed Investment Spending: Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications," CESifo Working Paper Series 27, CESifo.
    22. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    23. Oliner, Stephen & Rudebusch, Glenn & Sichel, Daniel, 1995. "New and Old Models of Business Investment: A Comparison of Forecasting Performance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 806-826, August.
    24. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    25. Aydoḡan Alti, 2003. "How Sensitive Is Investment to Cash Flow When Financing Is Frictionless?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 707-722, April.
    26. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, 2005. "Returns To Equity, Investment And Q: Evidence From The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 32-57, September.
    27. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    28. Yi Xue & Ramazan Gen�ay & Stephen Fagan, 2013. "Jump detection with wavelets for high-frequency financial time series," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(8), pages 1427-1444, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 228-242.
    2. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2020. "The yield curve and the stock market: Mind the long run," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    3. Faria, Gonçalo & Verona, Fabio, 2018. "The equity risk premium and the low frequency of the term spread," Research Discussion Papers 7/2018, Bank of Finland.
    4. Gonçalo Faria & Fabio Verona, 2016. "Forecasting the equity risk premium with frequency-decomposed predictors," Working Papers de Economia (Economics Working Papers) 06, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    5. Sinem Celik Girgin & Thanasis Karlis & Hong-Oanh Nguyen, 2018. "A Critical Review of the Literature on Firm-Level Theories on Ship Investment," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, January.
    6. Verona, Fabio, 2017. "Q, investment, and the financial cycle," Research Discussion Papers 26/2017, Bank of Finland.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    2. Andrew B. Abel & Stavros Panageas, 2020. "An Analytic Framework For Interpreting Investment Regressions In The Presence Of Financial Constraints," NBER Working Papers 26898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Renee van Eyden & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Predictive Ability of Competing Models for South Africa’s Fixed Business Non- Residential Investment Spending," Working Papers 201229, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Mark E. Wohar & David E. Rapach, 2007. "Forecasting the recent behavior of US business fixed investment spending: an analysis of competing models This is a significantly revised version of our previous paper, 'Forecasting US Business Fixed ," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 33-51.
    5. Simon Price, 2004. "UK investment and the return to equity: Q redux," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 87, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, 2006. "Returns to equity, investment and Q: evidence from the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 310, Bank of England.
    7. Andrew B. Abel, 2015. "The Analytics of Investment, q, and Cash Flow," NBER Working Papers 21549, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-73.
    9. Eran Yashiv, 2016. "Capital Values and Job Values," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 190-209, January.
    10. Klaus Gugler & Mario Liebensteiner & Adhurim Haxhimusa & Nora Schindler, 2016. "Investment under Uncertainty in Electricity Generation," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp234, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    11. Andrei, Daniel & Mann, William & Moyen, Nathalie, 2019. "Why did the q theory of investment start working?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 251-272.
    12. Andrea Mercatanti & Taneli Mäkinen & Andrea Silvestrini, 2017. "Investment decisions by European firms and financing constraints," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1148, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2014. "Institutional and structural determinants of investment worldwide," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 160-177.
    14. Lee, Gabriel S., 1999. "Housing Investment Dynamics, Period of Production, and Adjustment Costs," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, March.
    15. Coad, Alex, 2010. "Neoclassical vs evolutionary theories of financial constraints: Critique and prospectus," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 206-218, August.
    16. Abel, Andrew B., 2018. "The effects of q and cash flow on investment in the presence of measurement error," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(2), pages 363-377.
    17. Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2006. "Another look at the linear q model: an empirical analysis of aggregate business capital spending with maintenance expenditures," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(4), pages 1282-1315, November.
    18. Sinem Celik Girgin & Thanasis Karlis & Hong-Oanh Nguyen, 2018. "A Critical Review of the Literature on Firm-Level Theories on Ship Investment," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, January.
    19. Yashiv, Eran, "undated". "Capital Values, Job Values and the Joint Behavior of Hiring and Investment," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275799, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, 2005. "Returns To Equity, Investment And Q: Evidence From The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 32-57, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    investment; Tobin’s Q; bond Q; intangible Q; intangible investment; cash flow; discrete wavelets; frequency estimation; forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:por:cetedp:1701. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fepuppt.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Bonanca (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fepuppt.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.