IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis

  • Gallegati, Marco
  • Ramsey, James B.

This paper uses the structural change model and wavelet exploratory analysis to re-examine Tobin's q theory of investment. There are two main results. First, wavelet exploratory analysis provides a useful complementary approach to standard confirmatory statistical analysis. Specifically, using energy and time scale decomposition analyses, we find that the long-run is the dominant scale of variation for both aggregate investment and “measured” Tobin's q, and that for most of the sample there is a stable in-phase relationship between the smooth components of investment rate and q, with q slightly leading investments. Moreover, the analysis of the shift of the phase relationship of the long-term components reveals a “pure” smooth break occurring in the late 1970s, and a “spurious” smooth break in the early 1990s when the two smooth components resume their normal in-phase relationship. Second, when we combine the results from wavelet exploratory analysis and the multiple structural breaks test approach, we find that, contrary to the conventional literature, Tobin's q is an important determinant of aggregate investment, and its estimated coefficient can provide a plausible value for the implied adjustment cost of investment. Most importantly, we discover that the relationship depends on time scale; long time scales are more important than short.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X13000209
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Structural Change and Economic Dynamics.

Volume (Year): 25 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 60-73

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:60-73
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Adrian Peralta-Alva & Sami Alpanda, 2004. "Oil Crisis, Energy-Saving Technological Change and the Stock Market Crash of 1973-74," Macroeconomics 0405019, EconWPA.
  2. Chirinko, Robert S, 1993. "Business Fixed Investment Spending: Modeling Strategies, Empirical Results, and Policy Implications," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1875-1911, December.
  3. Andrew B. Abel & Olivier J. Blanchard, 1983. "The Present Value of Profits and Cyclical Movements in Investment," NBER Working Papers 1122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. John Laitner & Dmitriy Stolyarov, 2003. "Technological Change and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1240-1267, September.
  5. Simon Gilchrist & Charles P. Himmelberg, 1995. "Evidence on the Role of Cash Flow for Investment," Working Papers 95-01, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  6. Jushan Bai, 1995. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Working papers 95-18, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  7. Kim Sangbae & In Francis Haeuck, 2003. "The Relationship Between Financial Variables and Real Economic Activity: Evidence From Spectral and Wavelet Analyses," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, December.
  8. Ramsey, J.B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Working Papers 02-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  9. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1999. "The IT Revolution and the Stock Market," Working Papers 99-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  10. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, . "A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 14-93, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  11. Morck, Randall & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1990. "Do Managerial Objectives Drive Bad Acquisitions?," Scholarly Articles 27693803, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  12. Steve Bond & Jason Cummins, 2001. "Noisy share prices and the Q model of investment," IFS Working Papers W01/22, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
  13. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  14. Daniel Levy & Haiwei Chen, 2005. "Estimates of the Aggregate Quarterly Capital Stock for the Post- War U.S. Economy," Others 0505008, EconWPA, revised 16 May 2005.
  15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  16. Patrick M. Crowley & David G. Mayes, 2008. "How fused is the euro area core?: An evaluation of growth cycle co-movement and synchronization using wavelet analysis," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2008(1), pages 63-95.
  17. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  18. Cabalero, R.J., 1997. "Aggregaete Investment," Working papers 97-20, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  19. Simon Price & Christoph Schleicher, 2005. "Returns To Equity, Investment And Q: Evidence From The Uk," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(s1), pages 32-57, 09.
  20. Jushan Bai, 1997. "Estimation Of A Change Point In Multiple Regression Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 551-563, November.
  21. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
  22. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James Bernard Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2011. "The US Wage Phillips Curve across Frequencies and over Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(4), pages 489-508, 08.
  23. Olivier Blanchard & Changyong Rhee & Lawrence Summers, 1993. "The Stock Market, Profit, and Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 108(1), pages 115-136.
  24. Ramsey, James B. & Zhang, Zhifeng, 1995. "The Analysis of Foreign Exchange Data Using Waveform Dictionaries," Working Papers 95-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  25. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2005. "Taxes, regulations, and the value of U.S. and U.K. corporations," Staff Report 309, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  26. Ramsey, James B. & Gallegati, Marco & Gallegati, Mauro & Semmler, Willi, 2010. "Instrumental variables and wavelet decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1498-1513, November.
  27. Phillips, Peter C. B., 2001. "Trending time series and macroeconomic activity: Some present and future challenges," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 21-27, January.
  28. Mark J. Holmes, 2010. "An Alternative Perspective on Tobin's Q and Aggregate Investment Expenditure," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 9(1), pages 23-28, April.
  29. Robert E. Hall, 2000. "The stock market and capital accumulation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
  30. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Taxation and Corporate Investment: A q-Theory Approach," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(1), pages 67-140.
  31. Schiantarelli, F. & Georgoutsos, D., 1990. "Monopolistic competition and the Q theory of investment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1061-1078, July.
  32. Steven Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1987. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," NBER Working Papers 2387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Thomas Philippon, 2006. "The Bond Market's q," NBER Working Papers 12462, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Hansen, Bruce E., 2009. "Averaging Estimators For Regressions With A Possible Structural Break," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1498-1514, December.
  35. Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2000. "The Stock Market and Investment in the New Economy: Some Tangible Facts and Intangible Fictions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 61-124.
  36. Schaller, Huntley, 1990. "A Re-examination of the Q Theory of Investment Using U.S. Firm Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(4), pages 309-25, Oct.-Dec..
  37. Ramazan Genay & Faruk Seļuk & Brandon Whitcher, 2003. "Systematic risk and timescales," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 108-116.
  38. Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November.
  39. Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2012. "A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 74(4), pages 574-599, 08.
  40. Christoph Schleicher, 2002. "An Introduction to Wavelets for Economists," Staff Working Papers 02-3, Bank of Canada.
  41. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Azevedo, Nuno & Soares, Maria Joana, 2008. "Using wavelets to decompose the time–frequency effects of monetary policy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2863-2878.
  42. Gallegati, Marco, 2008. "Wavelet analysis of stock returns and aggregate economic activity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3061-3074, February.
  43. Crowley, Patrick M., 2010. "Long cycles in growth : explorations using new frequency domain techniques with US data," Research Discussion Papers 6/2010, Bank of Finland.
  44. Ralf Becker & Walter Enders & Junsoo Lee, 2006. "A Stationarity Test in the Presence of an Unknown Number of Smooth Breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 381-409, 05.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:60-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.