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The Relationship Between Financial Variables and Real Economic Activity: Evidence From Spectral and Wavelet Analyses

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  • Kim Sangbae

    () (Monash University)

  • In Francis Haeuck

    () (Monash University)

Abstract

Many empirical studies find that financial variables possess a predictive power over real economic activity. To examine this relationship, we adopt two time-series techniques: spectral analysis and a newly developed method, wavelet analysis. The major innovation of this paper is to apply wavelet analysis to the investigation of the relationship between various financial variables and real economic activity. Spectral analysis reports that US industrial production and financial variables have a common component in the long run and a varying lead-lag relationship, depending on the cycles. It implies that the relationship between US industrial production and the financial variables is not constant over time. This result is consistently confirmed by wavelet analysis. The lead-lag relationship, in the sense of Granger causality, varies over time, depending on the wavelet time scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim Sangbae & In Francis Haeuck, 2003. "The Relationship Between Financial Variables and Real Economic Activity: Evidence From Spectral and Wavelet Analyses," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:7:y:2003:i:4:n:4
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2014. "The forward looking information content of equity and bond markets for aggregate investments," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, pages 1-24.
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2013. "The influence of the international oil prices on the real effective exchange rate in Romania in a wavelet transform framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, pages 714-733.
    4. K.V. Ramaswamy, 2008. "Wage Inequality in Indian Manufacturing - Is it Trade, Technology or Labour Regulations?," Labor Economics Working Papers 22361, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    5. António Rua & Luís Catela Nunes, 2012. "A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case," Working Papers w201203, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Cifter, Atilla & Ozun, Alper, 2007. "Multiscale Systematic Risk: An Application on ISE-30," MPRA Paper 2484, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nachane, D.M. & Dubey, Amlendu Kumar, 2011. "The vanishing role of money in the macro-economy: An empirical investigation for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 859-869, May.
    8. Huang, Shian-Chang, 2011. "Wavelet-based multi-resolution GARCH model for financial spillover effects," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(11), pages 2529-2539.
    9. Vrowley, Patrick M. & Maraun, Douglas & Mayes, David, 2006. "How hard is the euro area core? : an evaluation of growth cycles using wavelet analysis," Research Discussion Papers 18/2006, Bank of Finland.
    10. Masih, Mansur & Alzahrani, Mohammed & Al-Titi, Omar, 2010. "Systematic risk and time scales: New evidence from an application of wavelet approach to the emerging Gulf stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 10-18, January.
    11. Crowley, Patrick M., 2005. "An intuitive guide to wavelets for economists," Research Discussion Papers 1/2005, Bank of Finland.
    12. Khalfaoui, R & Boutahar, M, 2012. "Portfolio risk evaluation: An approach based on dynamic conditional correlations models and wavelet multiresolution analysis," MPRA Paper 41624, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Dar, Arif Billah & Bhanja, Niyati, 2013. "Oil price and exchange rates: A wavelet based analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 414-422.
    14. Rua, António & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "A wavelet-based assessment of market risk: The emerging markets case," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 84-92.
    15. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-73.
    16. Lin, Fu-Lai & Chen, Yu-Fen & Yang, Sheng-Yung, 2016. "Does the value of US dollar matter with the price of oil and gold? A dynamic analysis from time–frequency space," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 59-71.
    17. Buerhan Saiti & Azlan Ali & Naziruddin Abdullah & Sulaiman Sajilan, 2014. "Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, pages 13-27.
    18. Bai, Limiao & Yan, Sen & Zheng, Xiaolian & Chen, Ben M., 2015. "Market turning points forecasting using wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 437(C), pages 184-197.
    19. Jia, Xiaoliang & An, Haizhong & Sun, Xiaoqi & Huang, Xuan & Wang, Lijun, 2017. "Evolution of world crude oil market integration and diversification: A wavelet-based complex network perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 1788-1798.
    20. Kim, Sangbae & In, Francis, 2007. "On the relationship between changes in stock prices and bond yields in the G7 countries: Wavelet analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 167-179, April.
    21. Alzahrani, Mohammed & Masih, Mansur & Al-Titi, Omar, 2014. "Linear and non-linear Granger causality between oil spot and futures prices: A wavelet based test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PA), pages 175-201.
    22. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Wavelet variance and correlation analyses of output in G7 countries," Macroeconomics 0512017, EconWPA.
    23. Haven, Emmanuel & Liu, Xiaoquan & Shen, Liya, 2012. "De-noising option prices with the wavelet method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 104-112.
    24. Atilla Cifter & Alper Ozun, 2008. "Multiscale Systematic Risk: an Application on the ISE-30," Istanbul Stock Exchange Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 10(38), pages 1-24.
    25. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Bond vs stock market's Q: Testing for stability across frequencies and over time," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 138-150.

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