IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v61y2017icp72-86.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data

Author

Listed:
  • Balcilar, Mehmet
  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Wohar, Mark E.

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of permanent and transitory shocks, within the framework of common cycles and common trends, in explaining stock and oil prices. We perform a multivariate variance decomposition analysis of monthly data on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and the S&P 500. The dataset used in the study spans a long period of 150years and therefore contains a rich history to examine both the short- and long-run comovement properties of oil and stock prices. Given that the oil and stock markets might comove both in the short- and long-run, it is of interest to see the relative impacts of transitory and permanent shocks on both variables. We find that (log) oil price and (log) S&P 500 share a common stochastic trend for our full sample of September 1859 to July 2015, but a common cycle only exists during the post-WW II period. Full and post-WW II samples have quite different common feature estimates in terms of the impact of permanent and transitory shocks as measured by the impulse responses and forecast error variance decompositions. We also find that in the short-run oil is driven mostly by cycles (transitory shocks) and stock market is mostly driven by permanent shocks. But, permanent shocks dominate in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:72-86
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988316303073
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vahid, F & Engle, Robert F, 1993. "Common Trends and Common Cycles," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(4), pages 341-360, Oct.-Dec..
    2. John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Have Individual Stocks Become More Volatile? An Empirical Exploration of Idiosyncratic Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 1-43, February.
    3. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-174, Summer.
    4. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables As Leading Indicators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 45-61, February.
    5. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard H. Larsen, 2015. "Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability," Working Papers No 7/2015, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    6. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "The Role Of Time‐Varying Price Elasticities In Accounting For Volatility Changes In The Crude Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(7), pages 1087-1109, November.
    7. Jay Choi, Jongmoo & Hauser, Shmuel & Kopecky, Kenneth J., 1999. "Does the stock market predict real activity? Time series evidence from the G-7 countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1771-1792, December.
    8. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    9. Cubadda, Gianluca & Hecq, Alain, 2001. "On non-contemporaneous short-run co-movements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 389-397, December.
    10. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
    11. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2010. "Oil price shocks and U.S. economic activity: an international perspective," Working Papers 1003, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
    13. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    14. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Miller, Stephen M., 2015. "Regime switching model of US crude oil and stock market prices: 1859 to 2013," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 317-327.
    15. Peter C. B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2011. "Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 455-491, November.
    16. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Structural oil price shocks and policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 314-319.
    17. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    18. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    19. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2002. "Separation, Weak Exogeneity, And P-T Decomposition In Cointegrated Var Systems With Common Features," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 273-307.
    20. Perron, Pierre & Rodriguez, Gabriel, 2003. "GLS detrending, efficient unit root tests and structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-27, July.
    21. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
    22. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Has oil price predicted stock returns for over a century?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 18-23.
    23. David E. Rapach & Christian E. Weber, 2004. "Financial Variables and the Simulated Out-of-Sample Forecastability of U.S. Output Growth Since 1985: An Encompassing Approach," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(4), pages 717-738, October.
    24. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    25. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
    26. Schwert, G William, 1990. "Stock Volatility and the Crash of '87," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 77-102.
    27. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    28. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2011. "What drives stock markets over short horizons? Evidence from emerging markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 261-269.
    29. Christiane Baumeister & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Time-Varying Effects of Oil Supply Shocks on the US Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.
    30. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    31. PareshKumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "Do Permanent Shocks Explain Income Levels? A Common Cycle-Common Trend Analysis Of Regional Income Levels For China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 656-662, December.
    32. Pierre Perron & Serena Ng, 1996. "Useful Modifications to some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 435-463.
    33. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2010. "Oil and the Great Moderation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(543), pages 131-156, March.
    34. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2013. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 78-93, January.
    35. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    36. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yucel, 2002. "Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Economy: Where Does the Asymmetry Originate?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 27-52.
    37. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    38. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    39. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    40. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, Joao Victor, 1995. "Estimating common sectoral cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 83-113, February.
    41. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & George Filis, 2014. "Dynamic Spillovers of Oil Price Shocks and Policy Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp166, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    42. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities In The Oil Price–Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 337-363, November.
    43. Knut Anton Mork & Robert E. Hall, 1980. "Energy Prices, Inflation, and Recession, 1974-1975," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 31-64.
    44. Issler, João Victor & Rodrigues, Claudia & Burjack, Rafael, 2014. "Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 310-335.
    45. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Dynamic spillovers of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 433-447.
    46. Issler, Joao Victor & Vahid, Farshid, 2001. "Common cycles and the importance of transitory shocks to macroeconomic aggregates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 449-475, June.
    47. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C. & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2006. "Common cyclical features analysis in VAR models with cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 117-141, May.
    48. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2013. "The causal nexus between oil prices and equity market in the U.S.: A regime switching model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 271-282.
    49. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    50. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "The Stock Market and Investment," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 115-131.
    51. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    52. Donald W. Jones, Paul N. Leiby and Inja K. Paik, 2004. "Oil Price Shocks and the Macroeconomy: What Has Been Learned Since 1996," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-32.
    53. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "The role of permanent and transitory shocks in explaining international health expenditures," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(10), pages 1171-1186.
    54. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    55. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
    56. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    57. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    58. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    59. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2008. "Understanding the importance of permanent and transitory shocks at business cycle horizons for the UK," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(12), pages 2879-2888.
    60. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    61. Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
    62. Oral Erdogan & Paul Bennett & Cenktan Ozyildirim, 2015. "Recession Prediction Using Yield Curve and Stock Market Liquidity Deviation Measures," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 407-422.
    63. Wesley Clair Mitchell & Arthur F. Burns, 1938. "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mitc38-1, July.
    64. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    65. Nyberg, Henri, 2011. "Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 561-578.
    66. Nyberg, Henri, 2011. "Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 561-578, April.
    67. Robert H. Rasche & John A. Tatom, 1977. "The effects of the new energy regime on economic capacity, production, and prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 2-12.
    68. Hecq, Alain & Palm, Franz C & Urbain, Jean-Pierre, 2000. " Permanent-Transitory Decomposition in VAR Models with Cointegration and Common Cycles," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 62(4), pages 511-532, September.
    69. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Filis, George, 2014. "Spillovers between oil and stock markets at times of geopolitical unrest and economic turbulence," MPRA Paper 59760, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    70. Engle, Robert F. & Issler, João Victor, 1993. "Common trends and common cycles in Latin America," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 47(2), April.
    71. Mili, Mehdi & Sahut, Jean-Michel & Teulon, Frédéric, 2012. "Non linear and asymmetric linkages between real growth in the Euro area and global financial market conditions: New evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 734-741.
    72. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Thuraisamy, Kannan S., 2013. "Common trends and common cycles in stock markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 472-476.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:eneeco:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:62-69 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    3. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:559-570 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:mulfin:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:61-68 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bos, Martijn & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2018. "Oil returns and volatility: The role of mergers and acquisitions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 62-69.
    6. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:409-418 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:eee:enepol:v:116:y:2018:i:c:p:127-136 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Rangan Gupta & Seong-Min Yoon, 2017. "OPEC News and Predictability of Oil Futures Returns and Volatility: Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Approach," Working Papers 201726, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    9. Walid Bahloul & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic News Surprises and Uncertainty of Major Economies on Returns and Volatility of Oil Futures," Working Papers 201715, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:133-141 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil market; Stock market; Common cycles; Common features; Trend-cycle decomposition; Permanent and transitory shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:61:y:2017:i:c:p:72-86. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.