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Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability

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  • Hilde C. Bjørnland

    ()

  • Vegard Høghaug Larsen

    ()

  • Junior Maih

    ()

Abstract

We analyze the role of oil price volatility in reducing U.S. macroeconomic instability. Using a Markov Switching Rational Expectation New-Keynesian model we revisit the timing of the Great Moderation and the sources of changes in the volatilityof macroeconomic variables. We find that smaller or fewer oil price shocks did not play a major role in explaining the Great Moderation. Instead oil price shocksare recurrent sources of economic fluctuations. The most important factor reducing overall variability is a decline in the volatility of structural macroeconomic shocks. A change to a more responsive (hawkish) monetary policy regime also played a role.

Suggested Citation

  • Hilde C. Bjørnland & Vegard Høghaug Larsen & Junior Maih, 2017. "Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability," Working Papers No 6/2017, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  • Handle: RePEc:bny:wpaper:0055
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Common cycles and common trends in the stock and oil markets: Evidence from more than 150years of data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 72-86.
    2. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
    3. repec:eee:enepol:v:129:y:2019:i:c:p:1306-1319 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:cml:incocp:5en-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sebastián Cadavid Sánchez, 2018. "Monetary policy and structural changes in Colombia, 1990-2016: A Markov Switching approach," Documentos CEDE 016970, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
    6. Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark, 2017. "Forecasting oil and stock returns with a Qual VAR using over 150years off data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 181-186.
    7. Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Asymmetric Reactions of the U.S. Natural Gas Market and Economic Activity," Discussion papers 17102, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Gupta, Rangan & Olubusoye, Olusanya E. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2016. "Time series analysis of persistence in crude oil price volatility across bull and bear regimes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 29-37.
    9. Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & Trung Duc TRAN, 2019. "Uncertainty-Dependent and Sign-Dependent Effects of Oil Market Shocks," Discussion papers 19042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    10. Qazi Haque & Nicolas Groshenny & Mark Weder, "undated". "Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s?," School of Economics Working Papers 2019-6, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    11. repec:eee:appene:v:233-234:y:2019:i::p:612-621 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Qazi Haque & Nicolas Groshenny & Mark Weder, 2019. "Do We Really Know that U.S. Monetary Policy was Destabilizing in the 1970s?," School of Economics Working Papers 2019-06, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; Great Moderation; New-Keynesian model; Markov Switching;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q35 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Hydrocarbon Resources
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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