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Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence

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  • Kristie M. Engemann
  • Kevin L. Kliesen
  • Michael T. Owyang

Abstract

Hamilton (2005) noted that nine of the last ten recessions in the United States were preceded by a substantial increase in the price of oil. In this paper, we consider whether oil price shocks significantly increase the probability of recessions in a number of countries. Because business cycle turning points generally are not available for other countries, we estimate the turning points together with oil's effect in a Markov-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. We find that, for most countries, oil shocks do affect the likelihood of entering a recession. In particular, an average sized shock to oil prices increases the probability of recession in the U.S. by about 60 percentage points over the following year.

Suggested Citation

  • Kristie M. Engemann & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence," Working Papers 2010-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2010-007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Reneé van Eyden & Josine Uwilingiye & Rangan Gupta, 2017. "The Impact of Oil Price on South African GDP Growth: A Bayesian Markov Switching-VAR Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 319-336, June.
    2. Cunado, Juncal & Jo, Soojin & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2015. "Macroeconomic impacts of oil price shocks in Asian economies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 867-879.
    3. Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2015. "Speculation in the Oil Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 621-649, June.
    4. Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 365-377.
    5. Luiggi Donayre & Neil A. Wilmot, 2016. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 167-182.
    6. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2014. "Where Is An Oil Shock?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 169-185, March.
    7. Claudio Morana, 2013. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    8. repec:eee:joecas:v:16:y:2017:i:c:p:26-41 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Juncal Cunado & Soojin Jo & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2015. "Revisiting the Macroeconomic Impact of Oil Shocks in Asian Economies," Staff Working Papers 15-23, Bank of Canada.
    10. James D. Hamilton, 2013. "Oil prices, exhaustible resources and economic growth," Chapters,in: Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 1, pages 29-63 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Khraief, Naceur, 2014. "Empirical linkage between oil price and stock market returns and volatility: Evidence from international developed markets," Economics Discussion Papers 2014-12, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    12. Gross, Marco, 2011. "Corporate bond spreads and real activity in the euro area - Least Angle Regression forecasting and the probability of the recession," Working Paper Series 1286, European Central Bank.
    13. Fornari, Fabio & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2010. "Predicting recession probabilities with financial variables over multiple horizons," Working Paper Series 1255, European Central Bank.
    14. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Nonlinearities And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 364-378, November.
    15. Bluedorn, John C. & Decressin, Jörg & Terrones, Marco E., 2016. "Do asset price drops foreshadow recessions?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 518-526.
    16. Pönkä, Harri, 2016. "Real oil prices and the international sign predictability of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 79-87.
    17. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Audi, Mohamed & Ouled Ahmed Ben Ali, Raja, 2015. "Revising empirical linkages between direction of Canadian stock price index movement and Oil supply and demand shocks: Artificial neural network and support vector machines approaches," MPRA Paper 66029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Kuhanathan Ano Sujithan & Sanvi Avouyi-Dovi & Lyes Koliai, 2013. "Does Monetary Policy Respond to Commodity Price Shocks?," Post-Print hal-01511915, HAL.
    20. repec:eee:intfin:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:133-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11718 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Saidi, Youssef, 2015. "Oil supply and demand shocks and stock price: Evidence for some OECD countries," MPRA Paper 63556, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Business cycles ; Petroleum industry and trade;

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