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The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A Global Perspective

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  • Morana, Claudio

Abstract

In this paper the oil price-macroeconomy relationship is investigated from a global perspective, by means of a large scale macro-financial-econometric model. In addition to real activity, fiscal and monetary policy responses and labor and financial markets are considered as well. We find that oil market shocks would have contributed to slowing down economic growth since the first Persian Gulf War episode. Among oil market shocks, supply side disturbances were the largest contributor to macro-financial fluctuations, accounting for up to 12% of real activity variance. The latter shocks would have exercised recessionary effects during the first and second Persian Gulf War and 2008 oil price episodes; preferences, speculative and volatility shocks would have also contributed to exacerbate the recessionary episodes. As long as oil supply will keep expanding at a lower pace than required by demand conditions, a recessionary bias, determined by higher and more uncertain real oil prices, may then be expected to persist also in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Morana, Claudio, 2012. "The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship since the Mid- 1980s: A Global Perspective," Energy: Resources and Markets 127423, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:feemer:127423
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.127423
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    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/127423/files/NDL2012-028.pdf
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    2. Shrestha, Anil & Mustafa, Andy Ali & Htike, Myo Myo & You, Vithyea & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2022. "Evolution of energy mix in emerging countries: Modern renewable energy, traditional renewable energy, and non-renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 419-432.
    3. Ramaprasad Bhar & Anastasios G. Malliaris & Mary Malliaris, 2021. "What Has Driven the U.S. Monthly Oil Production Since 2009? Empirical Results from Two Modeling Approaches," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-11, February.
    4. Morana, Claudio, 2017. "Macroeconomic and financial effects of oil price shocks: Evidence for the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 82-96.
    5. Akdoğan, Kurmaş, 2020. "Fundamentals versus speculation in oil market: The role of asymmetries in price adjustment?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Hegerty, Scott W., 2016. "Commodity-price volatility and macroeconomic spillovers: Evidence from nine emerging markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 23-37.
    7. Chen, Shiyi & Chen, Dengke & Härdle, Wolfgang Karl, 2014. "The influence of oil price shocks on China's macro-economy: A perspective of international trade," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2014-063, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    8. Lorusso, Marco & Pieroni, Luca, 2018. "Causes and consequences of oil price shocks on the UK economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 223-236.
    9. Cheng, Fangzheng & Li, Tian & Wei, Yi-ming & Fan, Tijun, 2019. "The VEC-NAR model for short-term forecasting of oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 656-667.
    10. Chul-Yong Lee & Sung-Yoon Huh, 2017. "Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, January.
    11. Timilsina, Govinda R., 2015. "Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 669-675.
    12. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2014. "Determinants of US financial fragility conditions," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 377-392.
    13. Abdollahi, Hooman & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2020. "A new hybrid model for forecasting Brent crude oil price," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    14. Jaehyung An & Alexey Mikhaylov & Nikita Moiseev, 2019. "Oil Price Predictors: Machine Learning Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(5), pages 1-6.
    15. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-063 is not listed on IDEAS

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    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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