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Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis

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  • Timilsina, Govinda R.

Abstract

A global computable general equilibrium model is used to analyze the economic impacts of rising oil prices with endogenously determined availability of biofuels to mitigate those impacts. The negative effects on the global economy are comparable to those found in other studies, but the impacts are unevenly distributed across countries/regions or sectors. The agricultural sectors of high-income countries, which are relatively energy intensive, would suffer more from a rising oil prices than that in lower-income countries, whereas the reverse is true for the impacts across manufacturing sectors. The impacts are especially strong for oil importers with relatively energy-intensive manufacturing and trade, such as India and China. While the availability of biofuels does mitigate some of the negative impacts of rising oil prices, the benefit is small because capacity of biofuels to economically substitute for fossil fuels on a large scale remains limited.

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  • Timilsina, Govinda R., 2015. "Oil prices and the global economy: A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 669-675.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:49:y:2015:i:c:p:669-675
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.03.005
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    6. Turdyeva, Natalia, 2019. "Effects of a terms of trade shock on the Russian economy," Conference papers 333094, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
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    8. Sarwar, Suleman & Chen, Wei & Waheed, Rida, 2017. "Electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 9-18.
    9. Qu, Qiushi & Wang, Limao & Cao, Zhi & Zhong, Shuai & Mou, Chufu & Sun, Yanzhi & Xiong, Chenran, 2019. "Unfolding the price effects of non-ferrous industry chain on economic development: A case study of Yunnan province," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-20.
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    11. Gbadebo Oladosu, 2015. "Oil market developments and the global economy from a general equilibrium perspective," EcoMod2015 8405, EcoMod.
    12. Wang, Qiang & Li, Rongrong, 2016. "Sino-Venezuelan oil-for-loan deal – the Chinese strategic gamble?#," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 817-822.
    13. Lin, Jie & Xiao, Hao & Chai, Jian, 2023. "Dynamic effects and driving intermediations of oil price shocks on major economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sarwar, Suleman & Chen, Wei & Malik, Muhammad Nasir, 2017. "Dynamics of electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 256-270.
    15. Shrestha, Anil & Mustafa, Andy Ali & Htike, Myo Myo & You, Vithyea & Kakinaka, Makoto, 2022. "Evolution of energy mix in emerging countries: Modern renewable energy, traditional renewable energy, and non-renewable energy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 419-432.
    16. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bekiros, Stelios & Ahmed, Ali, 2018. "The nexus between geopolitical uncertainty and crude oil markets: An entropy-based wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 30-39.
    17. Jean Andrei & Mihai Mieila & Gheorghe H. Popescu & Elvira Nica & Manole Cristina, 2016. "The Impact and Determinants of Environmental Taxation on Economic Growth Communities in Romania," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-11, November.
    18. Chul-Yong Lee & Sung-Yoon Huh, 2017. "Forecasting Long-Term Crude Oil Prices Using a Bayesian Model with Informative Priors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, January.
    19. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    20. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Jian-Min & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei, 2021. "The dynamic effects of international oil price shocks on economic fluctuation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    21. Szulczyk, Kenneth R. & Ziaei, Sayyed Mahdi & Zhang, Changyong, 2021. "Environmental ramifications and economic viability of bioethanol production in Malaysia," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 780-788.
    22. Dong, Baomin & Ma, Xili & Wang, Ningjing & Wei, Weixian, 2020. "Impacts of exchange rate volatility and international oil price shock on China's regional economy: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    23. Suleman Sarwar & Rida Waheed & Mehnoor Amir & Muqaddas Khalid, 2018. "Role of Energy on Economy The Case of Micro to Macro Level Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1905-1926.
    24. Gbatu, Abimelech Paye & Wang, Zhen & Wesseh, Presley K. & Tutdel, Isaac Yak Repha, 2017. "The impacts of oil price shocks on small oil-importing economies: Time series evidence for Liberia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 975-990.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price; CGE model; Global economy; International trade;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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