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Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis

  • AydIn, Levent
  • Acar, Mustafa
Registered author(s):

    As a small open economy, Turkey depends on both imported oil and natural gas, importing almost two-thirds of its primary energy demand. This paper analyzes the economic effects of oil price shocks for Turkey as a small, open oil- and gas-importing country. To analyze the potential long-term effects of oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables of interest, including GDP, consumer price inflation, indirect tax revenues, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model for the Turkish economy. Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the impact of oil price shocks under three distinct scenarios: reference, high and low oil prices. The simulation results show that these oil prices have very significant effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions in the Turkish economy.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

    Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (March)
    Pages: 1722-1731

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:3:p:1722-1731
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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