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Inflationary effect of crude oil prices in Turkey

Author

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  • Berument, Hakan
  • Taşçı, Hakan

Abstract

It is generally acknowledged that changes in oil prices affect economic welfare in ways that are not entirely reflected in transactions in the oil market. In this article, by using the 1990 input–output table, the inflationary effects of crude oil prices are investigated for Turkey. Under fixed nominal wages, profits, interest and rent earnings, the effect of increasing prices of oil on inflation is limited. However, when wages and the other three factors of income (profit, interest and rent) are adjusted to the general price level that includes the oil price increases, the inflationary effect of oil prices becomes significant. Hence, indexation could have very severe effects on an economy when oil prices increase and, in some cases, could even lead to hyperinflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Berument, Hakan & Taşçı, Hakan, 2002. "Inflationary effect of crude oil prices in Turkey," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 568-580.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:316:y:2002:i:1:p:568-580
    DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01025-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Uri, Noel D. & Boyd, Roy, 1997. "An evaluation of the economic effects of higher energy prices in Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 205-215, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Zhan-Ming, 2014. "Inflationary effect of coal price change on the Chinese economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 301-309.
    2. Torul Orhan & Alper C. Emre, 2010. "Asymmetric Effects of Oil Prices on the Manufacturing Sector in Turkey," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 90-105, July.
    3. AydIn, Levent & Acar, Mustafa, 2011. "Economic impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish economy in the coming decades: A dynamic CGE analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1722-1731, March.
    4. Zhang, Chuanguo & Chen, Xiaoqing, 2011. "The impact of global oil price shocks on China’s stock returns: Evidence from the ARJI(-ht)-EGARCH model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6627-6633.
    5. repec:pal:assmgt:v:18:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1057_s41260-016-0030-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mehdi Behname, 2013. "The relationship between Market Size, Inflation and Energy," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 2, pages 1-1, December.
    7. Wu, Libo & Li, Jing & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2013. "Inflationary effect of oil-price shocks in an imperfect market: A partial transmission input–output analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 354-369.
    8. Guo, Jin & Zheng, Xinye & Chen, Zhan-Ming, 2016. "How does coal price drive up inflation? Reexamining the relationship between coal price and general price level in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 265-276.
    9. Yeliz Yalcin & Cengiz Arikan & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2015. "Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 737-746, November.
    10. Çatik, A. Nazif & Önder, Özlem, 2013. "An asymmetric analysis of the relationship between oil prices and output: The case of Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 884-892.
    11. repec:eee:energy:v:139:y:2017:i:c:p:975-990 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Chen, Zhan-Ming & Liu, Yu & Qin, Ping & Zhang, Bo & Lester, Leo & Chen, Guanghua & Guo, Yumei & Zheng, Xinye, 2015. "Environmental externality of coal use in China: Welfare effect and tax regulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 16-31.
    13. repec:blg:reveco:v:69:y:2017:i:5:p:55-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:ege:wpaper:1502 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Wesseh, Presley K. & Appiah, Michael Owusu, 2014. "Oil price fluctuation, volatility spillover and the Ghanaian equity market: Implication for portfolio management and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 172-182.
    16. Moayad Al Rasasi & Mustafa Yilmaz, 2016. "The Effects of Oil Shocks on Turkish Macroeconomic Aggregates," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 471-476.
    17. Chang, Ting-Huan & Huang, Chien-Ming & Lee, Ming-Chih, 2009. "Threshold effect of the economic growth rate on the renewable energy development from a change in energy price: Evidence from OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5796-5802, December.
    18. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    19. Dedeoğlu, Dinçer & Kaya, Hüseyin, 2014. "Pass-through of oil prices to domestic prices: Evidence from an oil-hungry but oil-poor emerging market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 67-74.
    20. A. Nazif Çatik & A. Özlem Önder, 2011. "Inflationary Effects of Oil Prices in Turkey: A Regime-Switching Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(5), pages 125-140, September.
    21. Suzuki, Kengo & Uchiyama, Yohji, 2010. "Quantifying the risk of an increase in the prices of non-energy products by combining the portfolio and input-output approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5867-5877, October.
    22. A. Nazif Çatik & A. Özlem Önder, 2011. "Inflationary Effects of Oil Prices in Turkey: A Regime-Switching Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 47(5), pages 125-140, September.

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    Keywords

    Oil prices; Inflation; Input–output analysis;

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