The impact of rising international crude oil price on China's economy: an empirical analysis with CGE model
Many studies, as well as historical events, indicate that oil price shocks affect the macro economy of a country. In this paper we build a Chinese Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, with which we simulate the impact on the Chinese economy of international crude oil price when it rises by 5%, 10%, 20%, 40%, 50% and 100%. Simulation also identifies the effects of low/medium/high technological advances in the crude oil mining, petroleum and chemical and transportation sectors on fighting the risk of oil price shocks. The results indicate that international crude oil price has negative effects on Chinese real GDP, investment, consumption, import and export, amongst a range of economic indices. Technological advances have positive effects on fighting back the risk of oil price shocks, especially the technological advances in petroleum and chemicals, whilst the transportation sector has a greater effect on resisting oil price risk. An international oil price hike holds more disadvantages for rural residents' welfare. These results would be valuable reference information for policy makers.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 27 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.inderscience.com/browse/index.php?journalID==13|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ids:ijgeni:v:27:y:2007:i:4:p:404-424. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Graham Langley)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.