IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v37y2009i6p2182-2189.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Growth and oil price: A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries

Author

Listed:
  • Jayaraman, T.K.
  • Choong, Chee-Keong

Abstract

This paper investigates the nexus between economic growth and oil price in small Pacific Island countries (PICs). Except Papua New Guinea, none of the 14 PICs has fossil any fuel resources. Consequently, the other 13 PICs are totally dependent on oil imports for their economic activities. Since PICs have limited foreign exchange earning capacities, as they have a very narrow range of exports and are highly dependent on foreign aid, high oil prices in recent months have seriously tested their economic resilience. This paper applies the ARDL bounds testing methodology to four selected PICs, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu, which have consistent and reliable time series of data, with a view to assess the impact of oil price on economic growth. The findings are that oil price, gross domestic product and international reserve are cointegrated in all the four PICs. Further, both in the long and short runs, we observe that there is a uni-directional relationship as causality linkage runs only from oil price and international reserves to economic growth. The paper makes some policy recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Jayaraman, T.K. & Choong, Chee-Keong, 2009. "Growth and oil price: A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2182-2189, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:6:p:2182-2189
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(09)00060-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    2. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Smyth, Russell, 2007. "Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? Evidence from 182 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 333-341, January.
    3. Darby, Michael R, 1982. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 738-751, September.
    4. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    5. De Vita, Glauco & Abbott, Andrew, 2002. "Are saving and investment cointegrated? An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 293-299, October.
    6. Subrata Ghatak & Jalal Siddiki, 2001. "The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 573-583.
    7. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    8. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Prasad, Arti, 2008. "Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2686-2696, September.
    9. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2007. "Modelling oil price volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6549-6553, December.
    10. Kumar Narayan, Paresh & Singh, Baljeet, 2007. "The electricity consumption and GDP nexus for the Fiji Islands," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1141-1150, November.
    11. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    12. Tuck Cheong Tang & Mahendhiran Nair, 2002. "A cointegration analysis of Malaysian import demand function: reassessment from the bounds test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 293-296.
    13. Tang, Tuck Cheong, 2004. "Demand for broad money and expenditure components in Japan: an empirical study," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 487-502, December.
    14. Chien-Chung Nieh & Yu-Shan Wang, 2005. "ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 55-71, August.
    15. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    16. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Are oil shocks permanent or temporary? Panel data evidence from crude oil and NGL production in 60 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 919-936, May.
    17. Hassler, Uwe, 1996. "Spurious regressions when stationary regressors are included," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 25-31, January.
    18. Jai Sheen Mah, 1995. "An analysis of the structural change in the exchange market pressure: Korea, 1980-89," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 80-82.
    19. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    20. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Seema, 2005. "Estimating income and price elasticities of imports for Fiji in a cointegration framework," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-438, May.
    21. Atkins, Frank J. & Coe, Patrick J., 2002. "An ARDL bounds test of the long-run Fisher effect in the United States and Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 255-266, June.
    22. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Higher Education, Real Income and Real Investment in China: Evidence From Granger Causality Tests," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 107-125.
    23. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-744, June.
    24. Rasche, Robert H. & Tatom, John A., 1981. "Energy price shocks, aggregate supply and monetary policy: The theory and the international evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 9-93, January.
    25. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Raymond Chi Wing Ng, 2002. "Long-Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(2), pages 147-155, August.
    26. Charalambos Pattichis & Mona Kanaan, 2004. "The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis and Oil Price Shocks in a Small Open Economy: Evidence from Cyprus," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 45-56, January.
    27. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    28. Xiaohui Liu & Chang Shu, 2004. "Consumption and stock markets in Asian economies," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 483-496.
    29. Prasad, Arti & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Narayan, Jashwini, 2007. "Exploring the oil price and real GDP nexus for a small island economy, the Fiji Islands," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6506-6513, December.
    30. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-484, June.
    31. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    32. Gisser, Micha & Goodwin, Thomas H, 1986. "Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 95-103, February.
    33. Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
    34. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    35. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    36. World Bank, 2007. "World Development Indicators 2007," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8150.
    37. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "The residential demand for electricity in Australia: an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 467-474, March.
    38. P K Narayan & S Narayan, 2008. "Estimating the Demand for Money in an Unstable Open Economy: The Case of the Fiji Islands," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(1), pages 71-91, March.
    39. Anders Rahbek & Rocco Mosconi, 1999. "Cointegration rank inference with stationary regressors in VAR models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 76-91.
    40. M. Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "A disaggregated approach to test the J-Curve phenomenon: Japan versus her major trading partners," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 102-113, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Behmiri, Niaz Bashiri & Pires Manso, José Ramos, 2014. "The linkage between crude oil consumption and economic growth in Latin America: The panel framework investigations for multiple regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 233-241.
    2. Troster, Victor & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2018. "Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-causality in quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 440-452.
    3. Tuzova, Yelena & Qayum, Faryal, 2016. "Global oil glut and sanctions: The impact on Putin’s Russia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 140-151.
    4. Özlale, Ümit & Pekkurnaz, Didem, 2010. "Oil prices and current account: A structural analysis for the Turkish economy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4489-4496, August.
    5. Bülent Alta & Mert Topcu & Ebru Erdoðan, 2013. "Nevsehir University, Department of Economics, Nevsehir, Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(Special), pages 7-13.
    6. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
    7. Bekhet, Hussain Ali & Matar, Ali, 2013. "Co-integration and causality analysis between stock market prices and their determinates in Jordan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 508-514.
    8. Bukhari M.S. Sillah & Hamad M.H. Al-Sheikh, 2012. "Income, Price, and Government Expenditure Elasticities of Oil in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 333-341.
    9. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is There Co-Movement of Agricultural Commodities Futures Prices and Crude Oil?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114626, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Current Issues in Time-Series Analysis for the Energy-Growth Nexus; Asymmetries and Nonlinearities Case Study: Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82221, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2017.
    11. Ibrahim, Mansor H. & Ahmed, Huson Joher Ali, 2014. "Permanent and transitory oil volatility and aggregate investment in Malaysia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 552-563.
    12. repec:eee:enepol:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:256-270 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Pires Manso, José R., 2013. "How crude oil consumption impacts on economic growth of Sub-Saharan Africa?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 74-83.
    14. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Sarwar, Suleman & Chen, Wei & Malik, Muhammad Nasir, 2017. "Dynamics of electricity consumption, oil price and economic growth: Global perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 256-270.
    15. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.
    16. Al-mulali, Usama, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices on the Exchange Rate and Economic Growth in Norway," MPRA Paper 24447, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Aktas, Erkan & Özenç, Çiğdem & Arıca, Feyza, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Prices in Turkey on Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 8658, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2010.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil price Economic growth Causality;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:6:p:2182-2189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.