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Azerbaijan and its Oil Resources: Curse or Blessing?

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  • Farid Zulfigarov
  • Matthias Neuenkirch

Abstract

We examine the relationship between oil price fluctuations and economic activity in Azerbaijan using vector autoregressive models for the period 2002Q1-2018Q4. Our key results are as follows. First, quarterly GDP growth decreases after oil price innovations in both, the oil and gas sector and in the remaining economy. Downturns (upswings) in the oil and gas sector also prompt downturns (upswings) in the non-oil sector as fluctuations in oil revenues affect the government's capacity to subsidize the remaining economy. Second, oil price innovations also lead to higher inflation in Azerbaijan. In response to the required tightening of monetary policy, the manat appreciates against the US dollar. Finally, GDP effects are primarily documented after oil price increases, whereas the interest rate and the exchange rate mainly react to decreases. Inflation increases after both types of shocks, either due to the accommodative monetary policy stance in the case of oil price decreases or due to the shock itself in the case of increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Farid Zulfigarov & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2019. "Azerbaijan and its Oil Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Research Papers in Economics 2019-11, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:trr:wpaper:201911
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2020. "Analysis of Inflation Trends in Urban and Rural Parts of Azerbaijan: Main Drivers and Links to Oil Revenue," EconStor Preprints 226217, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    2. Niftiyev, Ibrahim, 2021. "Understanding Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in the Azerbaijan Economy: Case Studies of Vegetable and Fruit Sectors," EconStor Preprints 230316, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    3. Ibrahim Niftiyev & Natavan Namazova, 2020. "Analysis of Cyclicality in the Azerbaijan Economy: Results of the Chi-Square Test," Academic Journal of Economic Studies, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 6(2), pages 122-134, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Azerbaijan; Dutch disease; natural resources; oil prices; vector autoregression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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