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Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices

  • Jaime Casassus
  • Freddy Higuera

This paper shows that oil price changes, measured as short-term futures returns, are a strong predictor of excess stock returns at short horizons. Ours is a leading variable for the business cycle and exhibits low persistence which avoids the ctitious long-horizon predictability associated to other predictors used in the literature. We compare our variable with the most popular predictors in a sample period that includes the recent nancial crisis. Our results suggest that oil price changes are the only variable with forecasting power for stock returns. This signi cant predictive ability is robust against the inclusion of other variables and out-of-sample tests. We also study the cross-section of expected stock returns in a conditional CAPM framework based on oil price shocks. Our model displays high statistical signi cance and a better t than all the conditional and unconditional models considered including the Fama French three-factor model. From a practical perspective, ours is a high-frequency, observable variable that has the advantage of being readily available to market-timing investors.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its series Documentos de Trabajo with number 406.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:doctra:406
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