Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States
The paper develops an efficiency-wage model in which input prices affect the equilibrium rate of unemployment. We show that a simple framework based on only two prices (the real price of oil and the real rate of interest) is able to explain the main postwar movements in the rate of U.S. joblessness. The equations do well in forecasting unemployment many years out of sample, and provide evidence that the oil-price spike associated with Iraq's invasion of Kuwait appears to be a component of the "mystery" recession that followed. © 1998 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technolog
Volume (Year): 80 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/|
|Order Information:||Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- George A. Akerlof & Janet L. Yellen, 1990. "The Fair Wage-Effort Hypothesis and Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 105(2), pages 255-283.
- Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
- Keane, Michael P & Prasad, Eswar S, 1996.
"The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(3), pages 389-400, August.
- Michael P. Keane & Eswar Prasad, 1995. "The Employment and Wage Effects of Oil Price Changes: A Sectoral Analysis," IMF Working Papers 95/37, International Monetary Fund.
- Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
- Bean, Charles R, 1994.
"European Unemployment: A Survey,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 573-619, June.
- In-Moo Kim & Prakash Loungani, 1991.
"The role of energy in real business cycle models,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- John Burbidge & Alan Harrison, 1982.
"Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions,"
School of Economics Working Papers
1982-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-84, June.
- Jorgenson, Dale W, 1984. "The Role of Energy in Productivity Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 26-30, May.
- Rasche, Robert H. & Tatom, John A., 1981. "Energy price shocks, aggregate supply and monetary policy: The theory and the international evidence," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 9-93, January.
- Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-44, June.
- Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
- Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
- repec:oup:restud:v:49:y:1982:i:5:p:679-705 is not listed on IDEAS
- Nickell, Stephen J, 1990. "Unemployment: A Survey," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(401), pages 391-439, June.
- A Carruth & M Hooker & A Oswald, 1994. "Unemployment, Oil Prices and the Real Interest Rate: Evidence from Canada and the UK," CEP Discussion Papers dp0188, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
- Hamilton, James D, 1988. "A Neoclassical Model of Unemployment and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(3), pages 593-617, June.
- Dale W. Jorgenson, 1984. "The Role of Energy in Productivity Growth," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 11-26.
- Edmund S. Phelps, 1992. "Consumer Demand and Equilibrium Unemployment in a Working Model of the Customer-Market Incentive-Wage Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 1003-1032.
- Peter Ferderer, J., 1996. "Oil price volatility and the macroeconomy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-26.
- Oswald Andrew J., 1996. "A Conjecture on the Explanation for High Unemployment in the Industrialized Nations : Part I," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 475, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Michael Bruno & Jeffrey Sachs, 1982. "Input Price Shocks and the Slowdown in Economic Growth: The Case of U.K. Manufacturing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(5), pages 679-705.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:80:y:1998:i:4:p:621-628. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Anna Pollock-Nelson)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.