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Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Carruth,a.
  • Hooker, N.
  • Oswald,A.

Abstract

The paper develops an efficiency-wage model where input prices affect the equlibrium rate of unemployment. We show that a simple framework based on only two prices (the real price of oil and the real rate of interest) is able to explain the main post-war movements in the rate of U.S. joblessnss. The equations do well in forecasting unemployment many out-of-sample, and provide evidence that the oil price spike associated with Iraq's invasion of Kuweit appears to be a component of the "mystery" recession which followed.

Suggested Citation

  • Carruth,a. & Hooker, N. & Oswald,A., 1997. "Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States," Papers 22, Centre for Economic Performance & Institute of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:fth:cepies:22
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity

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