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Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of consumer durables

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  • Rajeev Dhawan
  • Karsten Jeske

Abstract

So far, the literature on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with energy price shocks uses energy on the production side only. In these models, energy shocks are responsible for only a negligible share of output fluctuations. We study the robustness of this finding by explicitly modeling private consumption of energy at the household level in addition to energy use at the firm level to account for total energy use in the economy. Additionally, we distinguish between investment in consumer durables and investment in capital goods. The model economy is calibrated to match total energy use and durable goods consumption as observed in the U.S. data. Simulation results indicate that, despite higher total energy use, this economy has an even smaller proportion of output fluctuations attributable to energy price shocks. Productivity shocks continue to be the primary force behind business cycle fluctuations. The driving force behind our results is that the household now has the flexibility to rebalance its investment portfolio. Specifically, the energy price hike is absorbed by reducing durable goods investment more than investment in capital goods, thereby cushioning the hit to future production at the expense of current consumption. Hence, our model better matches the consumption volatility observed in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2006. "Energy price shocks and the macroeconomy: the role of consumer durables," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2006-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2006-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Lin & Zhang, Xun & Wang, Shouyang & Xu, Shanying, 2016. "The effects of oil price shocks on output and inflation in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 101-110.
    2. Fanny Henriet, Nicolas Maggiar, and Katheline Schubert, 2014. "A Stylized Applied Energy-Economy Model for France," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    3. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    4. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2017. "Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?," Staff Working Papers 17-50, Bank of Canada.
    5. Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2017. "Asymmetric Reactions of the U.S. Natural Gas Market and Economic Activity," Discussion papers 17102, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske, 2007. "Taylor rules with headline inflation: a bad idea," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2007-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    7. Ahmed Jamal Pirzada, 2017. "Energy Price Uncertainty and Decreasing Pass-through to Core Inflation," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 17/681, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 30 May 2017.
    8. Olli-Pekka Kuuselaa & Gregory S. Amacher & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "Intensity-Based Permit Quotas and the Business Cycle: Does Flexibility Pay Off?," Research Department Publications IDB-WP-450, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    9. Amir Yaron & Steffen Hitzemann, 2017. "Welfare Costs of Oil Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 1381, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
    11. repec:spr:jecfin:v:42:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s12197-017-9387-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Uliha, Gábor, 2016. "Az olajár gyengülő makrogazdasági hatásai. Két versengő elmélet szintézise
      [Weakening macroeconomic effects of the oil price. A synthesis of two competing theories]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 787-818.
    13. Dhawan, Rajeev & Jeske, Karsten, 2008. "What determines the output drop after an energy price increase: Household or firm energy share?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 202-205, December.
    14. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Energy Business Cycles," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/19, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    15. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2011. "Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices," Documentos de Trabajo 406, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    16. Jaime Casassus & Freddy Higuera, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Oil on Industry Portfolios," Documentos de Trabajo 433, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
    17. Rizvanoghlu, Islam, 2011. "Oil Price Shocks and Macroeconomy: The Role for Precautionary Demand and Storage," MPRA Paper 42351, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jun 2012.
    18. repec:eee:enepol:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:536-546 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Marco Modica & Aura Reggiani, 2015. "Spatial Economic Resilience: Overview and Perspectives," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 211-233, June.
    20. Millard, Stephen, 2011. "An estimated DSGE model of energy, costs and inflation in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 432, Bank of England.
    21. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Oil Prices and the Dynamics of Output and Real Exchange Rate," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    22. Andrian, Leandro Gaston, 2010. "Essays on energy economics: Microeconomic and macroeconomic dimensions," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002725, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    23. Molyneaux, Lynette & Brown, Colin & Foster, John & Wagner, Liam, 2016. "Resilience, coal and the macroeconomy," MPRA Paper 74516, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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