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Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?

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  • Herrera, Ana María
  • Lagalo, Latika Gupta
  • Wada, Tatsuma

Abstract

It has been common to assume that the relationship between economic activity and oil prices is asymmetric. Theoretical underpinnings for this asymmetry include costly sectoral reallocation, partial equilibrium models of irreversible investment, and some version of precautionary savings. Yet, recent studies that use new methodologies to test for asymmetries in U.S. data have cast some doubts on that premise. In this paper, we use state-of-the-art techniques to evaluate the presence of asymmetries for a set of OECD countries containing both oil exporters and oil importers. We find very little support for the hypothesis that the response of industrial production to oil price increases and decreases is asymmetric. Our results have important implications for theoretical models of the transmission of oil price shocks: they point towards the importance of direct-supply and direct-demand transmission channels, as well as indirect transmission channels that imply a symmetric response.

Suggested Citation

  • Herrera, Ana María & Lagalo, Latika Gupta & Wada, Tatsuma, 2015. "Asymmetries in the response of economic activity to oil price increases and decreases?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 108-133.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:50:y:2015:i:c:p:108-133
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2014.09.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Luiggi Donayre & Neil A. Wilmot, 2016. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 167-182.
    2. Malikov, Emir, 2016. "Dynamic responses to oil price shocks: Conditional vs unconditional (a)symmetry," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 31-35.
    3. Heidorn, Thomas & Van Huellen, Sophie & Ruehl, C. & Woebbeking, F., 2017. "The long- and short-run impact of oil price changes on major global economies," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 225, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
    4. repec:eee:enepol:v:113:y:2018:i:c:p:171-192 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:47:y:2016:i:2016-02:p:287-357 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Guo, Jin & Zheng, Xinye & Chen, Zhan-Ming, 2016. "How does coal price drive up inflation? Reexamining the relationship between coal price and general price level in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 265-276.
    7. Herrera, Ana María & Karaki, Mohamad B., 2015. "The effects of oil price shocks on job reallocation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 95-113.
    8. Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "What drives long-term oil market volatility? Fundamentals versus speculation," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 10, pages 1-26.
    9. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2017. "Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 344-359.
    10. Kasey Buckles & Daniel Hungerman & Steven Lugauer, 2018. "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?," NBER Working Papers 24355, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:eee:enepol:v:106:y:2017:i:c:p:536-546 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Lower Oil Prices and the U.S. Economy: Is This Time Different?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 47(2 (Fall)), pages 287-357.
    13. repec:eee:energy:v:130:y:2017:i:c:p:204-217 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:eee:phsmap:v:498:y:2018:i:c:p:123-136 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Yin, Libo & Zhou, Yimin, 2016. "What drives long-term oil market volatility? Fundamentals versus Speculation," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-2, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    16. Yeliz Yalcin & Cengiz Arikan & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2015. "Determining the asymmetric effects of oil price changes on macroeconomic variables: a case study of Turkey," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(4), pages 737-746, November.
    17. Sam Olofin & Afees A. Salisu, 2017. "Modelling oil price-inflation nexus: The role of asymmetries and structural breaks," Working Papers 020, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    18. Andrzej Geise & Mariola Pilatowska, 2016. "Asymmetries in the relationship between economic activity and oil prices in the selected EU countries," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 16, pages 65-86.

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