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Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth

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  • James D. Hamilton

Abstract

This paper explores details behind the phenomenal increase in global crude oil production over the last century and a half and the implications if that trend should be reversed. I document that a key feature of the growth in production has been exploitation of new geographic areas rather than application of better technology to existing sources, and suggest that the end of that era could come soon. The economic dislocations that historically followed temporary oil supply disruptions are reviewed, and the possible implications of that experience for what the transition era could look like are explored.

Suggested Citation

  • James D. Hamilton, 2012. "Oil Prices, Exhaustible Resources, and Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 17759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17759
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tobias N. Rasmussen & Agustin Roitman, 2011. "Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective; Are they Really That Bad?," IMF Working Papers 11/194, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Christopher L. Foote & Jane Sneddon Little, 2011. "Oil and the macroeconomy in a changing world: a conference summary," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    3. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real‐Time Out‐of‐Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gevorkyan, Arkady & Semmler, Willi, 2016. "Oil price, overleveraging and shakeout in the shale energy sector — Game changers in the oil industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 244-259.
    2. Kallis, Giorgos & Sager, Jalel, 2017. "Oil and the economy: A systematic review of the literature for ecological economists," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 561-571.
    3. repec:vrs:reoecp:v:17:y:2017:i:4:p:399-423:n:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:tefoso:v:126:y:2018:i:c:p:271-283 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos Garcia & Esteban Skoknic, 2013. "Power Generation and the Business Cycle: The Impact of Delaying Investment," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv290, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    6. Svetlana Aleksandrova, 2016. "Impact of Oil Prices on Oil Exporting Countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 4, pages 447-460, December.
    7. Casey, Gregory, 2017. "Energy Efficiency and Directed Technical Change: Implications for Climate Change Mitigation," MPRA Paper 76416, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:eee:phsmap:v:490:y:2018:i:c:p:1335-1343 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Wolfgang Pollan, 2013. "US Inflation and Crude Oil Prices. An International Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 451, WIFO.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q30 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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