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World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions

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  • Dargay, Joyce M.
  • Gately, Dermot

Abstract

Using data for 1971-2008, we estimate the effects of changes in price and income on world oil demand, disaggregated by product - transport oil, fuel oil (residual and heating oil), and other oil - for six groups of countries. Most of the demand reductions since 1973-74 were due to fuel-switching away from fuel oil, especially in the OECD; in addition, the collapse of the Former Soviet Union (FSU) reduced their oil consumption substantially. Demand for transport and other oil was much less price-responsive, and has grown almost as rapidly as income, especially outside the OECD and FSU. World oil demand has shifted toward products and regions that are faster growing and less price-responsive. In contrast to projections to 2030 of declining per-capita demand for the world as a whole - by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC - we project modest growth. Our projections for total world demand in 2030 are at least 20% higher than projections by those three institutions, using similar assumptions about income growth and oil prices, because we project rest-of-world growth that is consistent with historical patterns, in contrast to the dramatic slowdowns which they project.

Suggested Citation

  • Dargay, Joyce M. & Gately, Dermot, 2010. "World oil demand's shift toward faster growing and less price-responsive products and regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 6261-6277, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:10:p:6261-6277
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