IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v38y2010i4p1979-1990.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?

Author

Listed:
  • Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.
  • Timilsina, Govinda R.

Abstract

This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are commonly used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early seventies, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sectoral representations produce more realistic projections as compared to the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context and institutionalizing the modelling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modelling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2010. "Modelling energy demand of developing countries: Are the specific features adequately captured?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1979-1990, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:4:p:1979-1990
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301-4215(09)00929-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adeyemi, Olutomi I. & Hunt, Lester C., 2007. "Modelling OECD industrial energy demand: Asymmetric price responses and energy-saving technical change," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 693-709, July.
    2. Espey, Molly, 1998. "Gasoline demand revisited: an international meta-analysis of elasticities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 273-295, June.
    3. Bose, Ranjan Kumar & Shukla, Megha, 1999. "Elasticities of electricity demand in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 137-146, March.
    4. Jones, Clifton T, 1994. "Accounting for technical progress in aggregate energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 245-252, October.
    5. Urga, Giovanni & Walters, Chris, 2003. "Dynamic translog and linear logit models: a factor demand analysis of interfuel substitution in US industrial energy demand," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-21, January.
    6. Kim, Bong Chin & Labys, Walter C., 1988. "Application of the translog model of energy substitution to developing countries : The case of Korea," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 313-323, October.
    7. Ghanadan, Rebecca & Koomey, Jonathan G., 2005. "Using energy scenarios to explore alternative energy pathways in California," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1117-1142, June.
    8. Beenstock, Michael & Goldin, Ephraim & Nabot, Dan, 1999. "The demand for electricity in Israel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 168-183, April.
    9. Rijal, Kamal & Bansal, N. K. & Grover, P. D., 1990. "Rural household energy demand modelling : A case study of Nepal," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 279-288, October.
    10. Michael P. Clements & Reinhard Madlener, 1999. "Seasonality, Cointegration, and Forecasting UK Residential Energy Demand," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 46(2), pages 185-206, May.
    11. Filippini, Massimo & Pachauri, Shonali, 2004. "Elasticities of electricity demand in urban Indian households," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 429-436, February.
    12. Tuan, Nguyen Anh & Lefevre, Thierry, 1996. "Analysis of household energy demand in Vietnam," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1089-1099, December.
    13. Ramesh Bhatia, 1987. "Energy Demand Analysis in Developing Countries: A Review," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 1-34.
    14. Saicheua, Supavud, 1987. "Input substitution in Thailand's manufacturing sector : Implications for energy policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 55-63, January.
    15. Lapillonne, B. & Chateau, B., 1981. "The medee models for long term energy demand forecasting," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 53-58.
    16. Engsted, T & Bentzen, J, 1997. "Dynamic Modelling of Energy Demand : A Guided Tour Through the Jungle of Unit Roots and Cointegration," Papers 97-6, Aarhus School of Business - Department of Economics.
    17. Crompton, Paul & Wu, Yanrui, 2005. "Energy consumption in China: past trends and future directions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 195-208, January.
    18. Taoufik Bouachera & Mohammad Mazraati, 2007. "Fuel demand and car ownership modelling in India," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 31(1), pages 27-51, March.
    19. Tanatvanit, Somporn & Limmeechokchai, Bundit & Chungpaibulpatana, Supachart, 2003. "Sustainable energy development strategies: implications of energy demand management and renewable energy in Thailand," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 7(5), pages 367-395, October.
    20. Polemis, Michael L., 2006. "Empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 385-403, May.
    21. Uri, Noel D., 1979. "Energy demand and interfuel substitution in India," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 181-190, April.
    22. Rapanos, Vassilis T. & Polemis, Michael L., 2006. "The structure of residential energy demand in Greece," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3137-3143, November.
    23. Kulshreshtha, Mudit & Nag, Barnali & Kulshrestha, Mukul, 2001. "A multivariate cointegrating vector auto regressive model of freight transport demand: evidence from Indian railways," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 29-45, January.
    24. Ziramba, Emmanuel, 2008. "The demand for residential electricity in South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3460-3466, September.
    25. Fatih Birol, 2007. "Energy Economics: A Place for Energy Poverty in the Agenda?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-6.
    26. Jonathan E. Hughes & Christopher R. Knittel & Daniel Sperling, 2008. "Evidence of a Shift in the Short-Run Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 113-134.
    27. Chongwoo Choe & Imad A Moosa, 1996. "Demand for Oil by Developing Countries," Working Papers 1996.09, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    28. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell, 2005. "The residential demand for electricity in Australia: an application of the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 467-474, March.
    29. Hainoun, A. & Seif-Eldin, M.K. & Almoustafa, S., 2006. "Analysis of the Syrian long-term energy and electricity demand projection using the end-use methodology," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(14), pages 1958-1970, September.
    30. Kulshreshtha, Mudit & Parikh, Jyoti K., 2000. "Modeling demand for coal in India: vector autoregressive models with cointegrated variables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 149-168.
    31. Grover, R.B. & Chandra, Subhash, 2006. "Scenario for growth of electricity in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2834-2847, November.
    32. Blakemore, F. B. & Davies, C. & Isaac, J. G., 1994. "UK energy market: An analysis of energy demands. Part I: A disaggregated sectorial approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 261-277.
    33. Ramanathan, R., 1999. "Short- and long-run elasticities of gasoline demand in India: An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 321-330, August.
    34. James M. Griffin, 1993. "Methodological Advances in Energy Modelling: 1970-1990," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 111-124.
    35. Suganthi, L. & Williams, A., 2000. "Renewable energy in India -- a modelling study for 2020-2021," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(15), pages 1095-1109, December.
    36. Mahmud, Fakhre & Chishti, Salim, 1990. "The demand for energy in the large-scale manufacturing sector of Pakistan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 251-254, October.
    37. Bhattacharyya, Subhes C. & Blake, Andon, 2009. "Domestic demand for petroleum products in MENA countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1552-1560, April.
    38. Al-Faris, Abdul Razak F., 2002. "The demand for electricity in the GCC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 117-124, January.
    39. Berndt, Ernst R & Wood, David O, 1975. "Technology, Prices, and the Derived Demand for Energy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 57(3), pages 259-268, August.
    40. Holtedahl, Pernille & Joutz, Frederick L., 2004. "Residential electricity demand in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 201-224, March.
    41. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.
    42. Eltony, M. N. & Al-Mutairi, N. H., 1995. "Demand for gasoline in Kuwait : An empirical analysis using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 249-253, July.
    43. Bentzen, Jan, 1994. "An empirical analysis of gasoline demand in Denmark using cointegration techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 139-143, April.
    44. Uri, Noel D., 1979. "Energy substitution in the UK, 1948-64," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 241-244, October.
    45. Pachauri, Shonali, 2004. "An analysis of cross-sectional variations in total household energy requirements in India using micro survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(15), pages 1723-1735, October.
    46. Pokharel, Shaligram, 2007. "An econometric analysis of energy consumption in Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 350-361, January.
    47. Nasr, G. E. & Badr, E. A. & Dibeh, G., 2000. "Econometric modeling of electricity consumption in post-war Lebanon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 627-640, December.
    48. Chateau, B. & Lapillonne, B., 1978. "Long-term energy demand forecasting A new approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 140-157, June.
    49. Sharma, D. Parameswara & Chandramohanan Nair, P. S. & Balasubramanian, R., 2002. "Demand for commercial energy in the state of Kerala, India: an econometric analysis with medium-range projections," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 781-791, July.
    50. Haas, Reinhard & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Residential energy demand in OECD-countries and the role of irreversible efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 421-442, September.
    51. Dahl, Carol & Sterner, Thomas, 1991. "Analysing gasoline demand elasticities: a survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 203-210, July.
    52. Harvey, Andrew, 1997. "Trends, Cycles and Autoregressions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 192-201, January.
    53. Siddayao, C. M. & Khaled, M. & Ranada, J. G. & Saicheua, S., 1987. "Estimates of energy and non-energy elasticities in selected Asian manufacturing sectors : Policy implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 115-128, April.
    54. Urban, F. & Benders, R.M.J. & Moll, H.C., 2007. "Modelling energy systems for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3473-3482, June.
    55. Pandey, Rahul, 2002. "Energy policy modelling: agenda for developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 97-106, January.
    56. Samimi, Rodney, 1995. "Road transport energy demand in Australia: A cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 329-339, October.
    57. Ghosh, Sajal, 2006. "Future demand of petroleum products in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(15), pages 2032-2037, October.
    58. Suthep Buranakunaporn & Edward Oczkowski, 2007. "A dynamic econometric model of Thailand manufacturing energy demand," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(17), pages 2261-2267.
    59. Hondroyiannis, George, 2004. "Estimating residential demand for electricity in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 319-334, May.
    60. Dhakal, Shobhakar, 2003. "Implications of transportation policies on energy and environment in Kathmandu Valley, Nepal," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(14), pages 1493-1507, November.
    61. Hirst, Eric & Goeltz, Richard & Carney, Janet, 1982. "Residential energy use : Analysis of disaggregate data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 74-82, April.
    62. Assimakopoulos, V., 1992. "Residential energy demand modelling in developing regions : The use of multivariate statistical techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 57-63, January.
    63. Lin Chan, Hing & Kam Lee, Shu, 1997. "Modelling and forecasting the demand for coal in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 271-287, July.
    64. Iniyan, S. & Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2006. "Energy models for commercial energy prediction and substitution of renewable energy sources," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2640-2653, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    2. World Bank, 2011. "A New Slant on Slopes : Measuring the Benefits of Increased Electricity Access in Developing Countries," World Bank Publications - Reports 2742, The World Bank Group.
    3. Ziramba, Emmanuel, 2008. "The demand for residential electricity in South Africa," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 3460-3466, September.
    4. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2015. "Demand and price uncertainty: Rational habits in international gasoline demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 40-49.
    5. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2012. "Demand and price volatility: rational habits in international gasoline demand," CUDARE Working Papers 122891, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    6. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and price volatility: rational habits in international gasoline demand," CUDARE Working Papers 121931, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    7. Jia, Jun-Jun & Guo, Jin & Wei, Chu, 2021. "Elasticities of residential electricity demand in China under increasing-block pricing constraint: New estimation using household survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. M.Adetunji BABATUNDE & M.Isa SHAUIBU, 2011. "The Demand for Residential Electricity in Nigeria," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 21, pages 1-13.
    9. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Menegaki, Angeliki N., 2019. "A time varying approach on the price elasticity of electricity in India during 1975–2013," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 385-397.
    10. Scott, K. Rebecca, 2011. "Demand and Price Volatility: Rational Habits in International Gasoline Demand," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt2q87432b, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    11. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    12. Polemis, Michael L., 2006. "Empirical assessment of the determinants of road energy demand in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 385-403, May.
    13. Zhou, Shaojie & Teng, Fei, 2013. "Estimation of urban residential electricity demand in China using household survey data," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 394-402.
    14. Muhammad Arshad Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2009. "The demand for electricity in Pakistan," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 33(1), pages 70-96, March.
    15. Jamil, Faisal & Ahmad, Eatzaz, 2011. "Income and price elasticities of electricity demand: Aggregate and sector-wise analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5519-5527, September.
    16. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Smyth, Russell & Prasad, Arti, 2007. "Electricity consumption in G7 countries: A panel cointegration analysis of residential demand elasticities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 4485-4494, September.
    17. Adewuyi, Adeolu O., 2016. "Determinants of import demand for non-renewable energy (petroleum) products: Empirical evidence from Nigeria," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 73-93.
    18. Ben Sita, Bernard & Marrouch, Walid & Abosedra, Salah, 2012. "Short-run price and income elasticity of gasoline demand: Evidence from Lebanon," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 109-115.
    19. Haitao Yin & Hui Zhou & Kai Zhu, 2016. "Long- and short-run elasticities of residential electricity consumption in China: a partial adjustment model with panel data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(28), pages 2587-2599, June.
    20. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "Residential electricity demand dynamics in Turkey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-210, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:4:p:1979-1990. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.