Energy Consumption in China: Past Trends and Future Directions
In 2003 China’s energy consumption amounted to 1678 million tonnes coal equivalent (MTCE), making China the world’s second largest consumer behind only the United States. China is now also one of the largest oil importers in the world. With an economy which is expected to maintain a rate of growth of 7 to 8 per cent for decades, China’s role in the world energy market becomes increasingly influential. This makes it important to predict China’s future demand for energy. The objective of this paper is to apply the Bayesian vector autoregressive methodology to forecast China’s energy consumption and to discuss potential implications. The results of this paper suggest that total energy consumption should increase to 2173 MtCE in 2010, an annual growth rate of 3.8 per cent which is slightly slower than the average rate in the past decade. The slower growth reflects an expected slower economic growth and the decline in energy consumption due to structural changes in the Chinese economy.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (08) 9380 2918
Fax: (08) 9380 1016
Web page: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/school/disciplines/economics
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rossana Galli, 1998. "The Relationship Between Energy Intensity and Income Levels: Forecasting Long Term Energy Demand in Asian Emerging Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 85-105.
- Richard F. Garbaccio & Mun S. Ho & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1999. "Why Has the Energy-Output Ratio Fallen in China?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 63-91.
- John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
- Tao Zha, 1998. "A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 16-29.
- Huang, Jin-ping, 1993. "Industry energy use and structural change : A case study of The People's Republic of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 131-136, April.
- Robert B. Litterman, 1985.
"Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience,"
274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
- Fisher-Vanden, Karen & Jefferson, Gary H. & Liu, Hongmei & Tao, Quan, 2004. "What is driving China's decline in energy intensity?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 77-97, March.
- Summers, Peter M., 2001. "Forecasting Australia's economic performance during the Asian crisis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 499-515.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1992.
"A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1034, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1993. "A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 179-212 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher A. Sims, 1989. "A nine variable probabilistic macroeconomic forecasting model," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 14, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Hing Lin Chan & Shu Kam Lee, 1996. "Forecasting the Demand for Energy in China," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 19-30.
- Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996.
"Bayesian methods for dynamic multivariate models,"
FRB Atlanta Working Paper
96-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983.
"Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions,"
NBER Working Papers
1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986. "Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution," Staff Report 93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- von Hirschhausen, Christian & Andres, Michael, 2000. "Long-term electricity demand in China -- From quantitative to qualitative growth?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 231-241, April.
- Sinton, Jonathan E. & Fridley, David G., 2000. "What goes up: recent trends in China's energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(10), pages 671-687, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uwa:wpaper:04-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Verity Chia)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.