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Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation

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  • Patrick Higgins
  • Tao Zha
  • Karen Zhong

Abstract

Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of rigorous and systematic research in the evaluation of out-of-sample model-based forecasts of China's real GDP growth and CPI inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable of predicting turning points and to be usable for policy analysis under different scenarios. It predicts that China's future GDP growth will be of L-shape rather than U-shape.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Higgins & Tao Zha & Karen Zhong, 2016. "Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation," NBER Working Papers 22402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22402 Note: EFG ME
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:chieco:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:110-122 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Santaeulàlia-Llopis, Raül ; Zheng, Yu, 2016. "The Price of Growth: Consumption Insurance in China 1989-2009," Economics Working Papers ECO2016/13, European University Institute.
    3. Chen, Kaiji & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Higgins, Patrick C. & Zha, Tao, 2016. "Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised 01 Oct 2017.
    4. Tao Zha & Kaiji Chen, 2017. "The Asymmetric Transmission of China's Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 516, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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