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Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model

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  • Fernald, John G.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Spiegel, Mark M.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Swanson, Eric T.

    () (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

Abstract

We use a broad set of Chinese economic indicators and a dynamic factor model framework to estimate Chinese economic activity and inflation as latent variables. We incorporate these latent variables into a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) to estimate the effects of Chinese monetary policy on the Chinese economy. A FAVAR approach is particularly well-suited to this analysis due to concerns about Chinese data quality, a lack of a long history for many series, and the rapid institutional and structural changes that China has undergone. We find that increases in bank reserve requirements reduce economic activity and inflation, consistent with previous studies. In contrast to much of the literature, however, we find that changes in Chinese interest rates also have substantial impacts on economic activity and inflation, while other measures of changes in credit conditions, such as shocks to M2 or lending levels, do not once other policy variables are taken into account. Overall, our results indicate that the monetary policy transmission channels in China have moved closer to those of Western market economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary Policy Effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR Model," Working Paper Series 2014-7, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2014-07
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2014-07
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    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Zheng & Spiegel, Mark M. & Tai, Andrew, 2017. "Measuring the effects of dollar appreciation on Asia: A FAVAR approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 353-370.
    2. John Fernald, 2015. "Comment on "Trends and Cycles in China's Macroeconomy"," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, pages 90-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Güneş Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty, 2018. "Do interest rates play a major role in monetary policy transmission in China?," BIS Working Papers 714, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2015. "Commodity prices and BRIC and G3 liquidity: A SFAVEC approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 18-33.
    5. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2016. "Chinese liquidity increases and the U.S. economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 764-771.
    6. Fungáčová, Zuzana & Nuutilainen, Riikka & Weill, Laurent, 2016. "Reserve requirements and the bank lending channel in China," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 37-50.
    7. Arpita Chatterjee & Richa Saraf, 2017. "Impact of China on World Commodity Prices and Commodity Exporters," Discussion Papers 2017-13, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    8. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 195-212.
    9. Funke, Michael & Mihaylovski, Petar & Zhu, Haibin, 2015. "Monetary policy transmission in China: A DSGE model with parallel shadow banking and interest rate control," BOFIT Discussion Papers 9/2015, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    10. Ansgar Belke & Thomas Osowski, 2017. "International Effects of Euro Area versus US Policy Uncertainty: A FAVAR Approach," ROME Working Papers 201703, ROME Network.
    11. Hongyi Chen & Ran Li & Peter Tillmann, 2018. "Pushing on a String: State-Owned Enterprises and Monetary Policy Transmission in China," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201806, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    12. Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi & Nguyen & Frédéric Teulon, 2015. "Modelling inflation shifts and persistence in Tunisia: perspectives from an evolutionary spectral approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(57), pages 6200-6210, December.
    13. Fernald, John G. & Hsu, Eric & Spiegel, Mark M., 2014. "Has China’s economy become more “standard”?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Sara Hsu, 2016. "China's Banking Sector as the Foundation of Financial Reform," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 244-248, May.
    15. Tan, Ying & Sha, Wenbiao & Paudel, Krishna, 2017. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Agricultural Price Index in China: A FAVAR Approach," 2017 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2017, Mobile, Alabama 252676, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    16. Chen, Kaiji & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Higgins, Patrick C. & Zha, Tao, 2016. "Impacts of Monetary Stimulus on Credit Allocation and Macroeconomy: Evidence from China," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2016-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, revised 01 Oct 2017.
    17. Higgins, Patrick & Zha, Tao & Zhong, Wenna, 2016. "Forecasting China's economic growth and inflation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 46-61.
    18. srithilat, khaysy & Sun, Gang, 2017. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Development: Evidence from Lao PDR," MPRA Paper 79369, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 27 Apr 2017.
    19. Chen, Hongyi & Chow, Kenneth & Tillmann, Peter, 2017. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in China: Evidence from a Qual VAR," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 216-231.
    20. Ho, Steven Wei & Zhang, Ji & Zhou, Hao, 2014. "Hot money and quantitative easing: the spillover effect of U.S. monetary policy on Chinese housing, equity and loan markets," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 211, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    21. Spiegel, Mark M. & Tai, Andrew, 2017. "International Transmission of Japanese Monetary Shocks Under Low and Negative Interest Rates: A Global Favar Approach," Working Paper Series 2017-8, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    22. Mohamed BELHEDI & Ines SLAMA & Amine LAHIANI, 2015. "Tranmission Of International Shocks To An Emerging Small Open-Economy: Evidence From Tunisia," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 42, pages 231-258.
    23. repec:eee:chieco:v:46:y:2017:i:c:p:261-274 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Angrick, Stefan & Naoyuki, Yoshino, 2018. "From window guidance to interbank rates : Tracing the transition of monetary policy in Japan and China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    25. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2014. "Liquidity expansion in China and the U.S. economy," MPRA Paper 59338, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    Keywords

    Measuring China’s economy; dynamic factor model; factor-augmented VAR; monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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