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Bank loans and the effects of monetary policy in China: VAR/VECM approach

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  • Sun, Lixin
  • Ford, J.L.
  • Dickinson, David G.

Abstract

In this paper, we test the differential effects of monetary policy shock on aspects of banks' balance sheets (deposits, loans, and securities) across bank categories (aggregate banks, state banks, and non-state banks) as well as on macroeconomic variables (output, consumer price index, exports, imports, and foreign exchange reserves). We do so by estimating VAR/VEC Models to uncover the transmission mechanisms of China's monetary policy. Also we identify the cointegrating vectors to establish the long-run relationship between these variables. By using monthly aggregate bank data and disaggregated data on bank and loan types from 1996 to 2006, our study suggests the existence of a bank lending channel, an interest rate channel and an asset price channel. Furthermore, we discuss and explore the distribution and growth effects of China's monetary policy on China's real economy. In addition, we investigate the effects of China's monetary policy on China's international trade. Finally, we identify the cointegrating vectors among these variables and set up VEC Models to uncover the long-run relationships that connect the indicators of monetary policy, bank balance sheet variables and the macroeconomic variables in China.

Suggested Citation

  • Sun, Lixin & Ford, J.L. & Dickinson, David G., 2010. "Bank loans and the effects of monetary policy in China: VAR/VECM approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 65-97, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:21:y:2010:i:1:p:65-97
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Rongrong, 2013. "Does monetary policy matter in China? A narrative approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 56-74.
    2. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2015. "Assessing the impact of the Chinese stimulus package at home and abroad: A damp squib?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 137-162.
    3. Sun, Lixin, 2016. "Corporate Deleveraging and Macroeconomic Policies: Evidence from China," MPRA Paper 69140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. He, Qing & Leung, Pak-Ho & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2013. "Factor-augmented VAR analysis of the monetary policy in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 88-104.
    5. Fernald, John G. & Spiegel, Mark M. & Swanson, Eric T., 2014. "Monetary policy effectiveness in China: Evidence from a FAVAR model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 83-103.
    6. Angrick, Stefan & Naoyuki, Yoshino, 2018. "From window guidance to interbank rates : Tracing the transition of monetary policy in Japan and China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 4/2018, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    7. Jafar Haghighat & Tanaz Salahesh, 2016. "The role of money multiplier in monetary transmission mechanism in Iran (bank lending and money supply)," International Journal of Monetary Economics and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(2), pages 212-223.
    8. Deryugina, Elena B. & Ponomarenko, Alexey A., 2011. "Identifying structural shocks behind loan supply fluctuations in Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2011, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    9. Nguyen, Vu Hong Thai & Boateng, Agyenim, 2013. "The impact of excess reserves beyond precautionary levels on Bank Lending Channels in China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 358-377.
    10. Lu, Zhengfei & Zhu, Jigao & Zhang, Weining, 2012. "Bank discrimination, holding bank ownership, and economic consequences: Evidence from China," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 341-354.
    11. Ching-Chun Wei & Tzu-Wei Chuang, 2015. "Empirical Testing of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Transmission Channels in China," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(1), pages 145-154, January.
    12. Yang Fan & Teng Jianzhou, 2011. "Studying on the monetary transmission mechanism in China in the presence of structural changes," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 1(4), pages 334-357, September.

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