IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

China's Current Account and Exchange Rate

  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Menzie D. Chinn
  • Eiji Fujii

We examine whether the Chinese exchange rate is misaligned and how Chinese trade flows respond to the exchange rate and to economic activity. We find, first, that the Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), is substantially below the value predicted by estimates based upon a cross-country sample, when using the 2006 vintage of the World Development Indicators. The economic magnitude of the mis-alignment is substantial -- on the order of 50 percent in log terms. However, the misalignment is typically not statistically significant, in the sense of being more than two standard errors away from the conditional mean. Moreover, this finding disappears completely when using the most recent 2008 vintage of data; then the estimated undervaluation is on the order of 10 percent. Second, we find that Chinese multilateral trade flows respond to relative prices -- as represented by a trade weighted exchange rate -- but the relationship is not always precisely estimated. In addition, the direction of the effects is sometimes different from what is expected a priori. For instance, Chinese ordinary imports actually rise in response to a RMB depreciation; however, Chinese exports appear to respond to RMB depreciation in the expected manner, as long as a supply variable is included. In that sense, Chinese trade is not exceptional. Furthermore, Chinese trade with the United States appears to behave in a standard manner -- especially after the expansion in the Chinese manufacturing capital stock is accounted for. Thus, the China-US trade balance should respond to real exchange rate and relative income movements in the anticipated manner. However, in neither the case of multilateral nor bilateral trade flows should one expect quantitatively large effects arising from exchange rate changes. And, of course, these results are not informative with regard to the question of how a change in the RMB/USD exchange rate would affect the overall US trade deficit.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-03/cesifo1_wp2587.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2587.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2587
Contact details of provider: Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Shang-Jin Wei & Eswar Prasad, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows; Patterns and Possible Explanations," IMF Working Papers 05/79, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2005. "On the Renminbi: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," NBER Working Papers 11274, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just how Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20504, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  4. Garcia-Herrero, Alicia & Koivu, Tuuli, 2007. "Can the Chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  5. Chinn, Menzie D, 2000. "The Usual Suspects? Productivity and Demand Shocks and Asia-Pacific Real Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 20-43, February.
  6. Thorbecke Willem, 2006. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, December.
  7. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Ahn, Choong Y. & Lee, Young S. & Yang, Doo Y., 2007. "Consistent estimates of world trade elasticities and an application to the effects of Chinese Yuan (RMB) appreciation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 314-330, April.
  8. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2002. "An Empirical Analysis of China's Export Behavior," IMF Working Papers 02/200, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," Working Papers 112007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  10. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad Diba, 1996. "Relative Labor Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 5676, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 2007. "Assessing China's exchange rate regime," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22, pages 575-627, 07.
  12. Jaime Marquez & John Schindler, 2007. "Exchange-rate Effects on China's Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 837-853, November.
  13. Catherine L. Mann & Katharina Plück, 2005. "The US Trade Deficit: A Disaggregated Perspective," Working Paper Series WP05-11, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  14. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2008. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment: The Yuan and Other Currencies," NBER Working Papers 14168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
  16. Hsieh, David A., 1982. "The determination of the real exchange rate : The productivity approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3-4), pages 355-362, May.
  17. Arvind Subramanian & Jonathan David Ostry & Simon Johnson, 2007. "The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa; Benchmarking the Constraints," IMF Working Papers 07/52, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Lamin Leigh & Steven Vincent Dunaway & Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust Are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates; The Case of China," IMF Working Papers 06/220, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Jeffrey A. Frankel & C. Fred Bergsten & Michael L. Mussa, 1994. "Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Policy in the 1980s, pages 293-366 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. John W. Schindler & Dustin H. Beckett, 2005. "Adjusting Chinese bilateral trade data: how big is China's trade surplus," International Finance Discussion Papers 831, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  21. Jeffrey Frankel, 2006. "On the Yuan: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 246-275, June.
  22. Menzie David Chinn & Eswar Prasad, 2000. "Medium-Term Determinants of Current Accounts in Industrial and Developing Countries; An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 00/46, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Chapters, in: Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, chapter 13 Edward Elgar.
  24. Menzie D. Chinn, 1998. "Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?," NBER Working Papers 6491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Fung, K. C. & Lau, Lawrence J., 2001. "New Estimates of the United States-China BilateralTrade Balances," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 102-130, March.
  26. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 94-19, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  27. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialization and Tariff Rates: The Implications for Aggregate U.S. Trade Flow Equations," NBER Working Papers 11719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  29. Peter Isard & Hamid Faruqee, 1998. "Exchange Rate Assessment; Extension of the Macroeconomic Balance Approach," IMF Occasional Papers 167, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Chong-En Bai & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Yingyi Qian, 2006. "The Return to Capital in China," NBER Working Papers 12755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"," NBER Working Papers 11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Alan Ahearne & John Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," Working Paper Series WP-03-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  33. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2005. "An Analysis Of Hong Kong Export Performance," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 323-340, October.
  34. Fernald, John & Edison, Hali & Loungani, Prakash, 1999. "Was China the first domino? Assessing links between China and other Asian economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 515-535, August.
  35. Anuradha Dayal-Gulati & Valerie Cerra, 1999. "China's Trade Flows; Changing Price Sensitivies and the Reform Process," IMF Working Papers 99/1, International Monetary Fund.
  36. Guillaume Gaulier & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal, 2006. "China’s Emergence and the Reorganisation of Trade Flows in Asia," Working Papers 2006-05, CEPII research center.
  37. Wang, Jiao & Ji, Andy G., 2006. "Exchange rate sensitivity of China’s bilateral trade flows," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  38. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "Pitfalls in Measuring Exchange Rate Misalignment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 183-206, April.
  39. Steven Dunaway & Lamin Leigh & Xiangming Li, 2009. "How Robust Are Estimates Of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case Of China," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 361-375, 08.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2587. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.